New National Polling Shows Danger Signs For Childers

While we may still be in 20009, we are certainly talking about the 2010 mid-term elections and a group of new national polls may signal trouble for Democrats in red and purple districts- including Travis Childers in the First District. There are four specific polls from Rasmussen that came out over the past week that show warning signs for the incumbent.

The first poll looked at the impact of Congress on the day-to-day lives of voters. Today, 74 percent say legislation being debated would have a significant impact on the lives- the highest level since Democrats regained control of Congress in 2007. As a reference, the number was at 52 percent in June. Why is this important? Because Republicans are more concerned about what Congress is doing than Democrats.

Under similar measure, 57 percent of voters now say it is important which party is in control. And while 57 percent of Democrats feel that way- 67 percent of GOP voters believe that to be true. These polls underscore the enthusiasm factor we will see in 2010. Republicans are not happy with the direction of Congress, want a Republican Congress, and may no longer be willing to accept a conservative Democrat who will vote for Nancy Pelosi. At the same time, Republicans have an eight-point edge (44 to 36) in the most recent generic vote poll.

Another poll that may affect Childers is support of the stimulus package. Childers voted for it, and continues to stand by that today. That said, for the first time since passage a plurality say that the stimulus hurt the economy. According to the latest Rasmussen polling, 38 percent believe it hurt the economy, 30 percent say it helped, and 28 percent say it had no impact. Besides the vote for Pelosi, this is the piece of legislation that could give Childers the most trouble as he opposed most other controversial measured pushed by the leadership.

These polls, like any at this time, shouldn’t be taken as a sign of what will definitely happen in 10 months. Rather, they are an indicator of what the electorate is thinking. The First District electorate is a tricky one and one that is not easily defined, but current winds are certainly blowing against Democrats.