A Primary Will Not Help The GOP in MS-01
On more than one occasion, I have made the point that Republicans would be best advised to avoid a serious primary in the First District. I’ve heard and read plenty of times from some who think for one reason or another that primaries are a good thing and that it would actually help the GOP nominee come November.
We have seen Republicans win very hotly contested primaries, possibly get a few bruises along the way, but win with ease in the general election. A couple examples are the GOP primary for lieutenant governor in 2007 and MS-03 in 2008. In the lt. governor primary, Phil Bryant and Charlie Ross went after each other pretty good on a number of occasions. Bryant won the primary and easily won the general election.
In MS-03, Gregg Harper was really the beneficiary of attacks by David Landrum and Charlie Ross against one another as he came under the radar and won in a runoff against Ross. Harper also would go on to win easily in the general election.
Of course, those two men were matched up against a much weaker opponent in the general election than the GOP candidate in the First District will face. Those primaries were essentially the general election- this is not by a long stretch.
If the GOP wants to win MS-01, they are going to need the best candidate possible, with as much money as possible with as little bruises from his own side as possible. It seems some feel like anyone with an R next to their name will defeat Childers, which is simply not the case.
A strong, completive GOP primary can do two things: the first is to cause the candidates to spend money that would be better spent on the Democratic opponent and the second is cause divisions to build among GOP voters.
In 2008, we saw what happens when everything goes wrong in a primary. Would Travis Childers have defeated Greg Davis had Davis not gone after Glenn McCullough so hard and alienated so many voters? Would Childers of still been able to come in under the radar and win over conservatives in every part of the district not named Desoto county?
The same argument could be made regarding McCullough if would have won without a serious primary opponent.
I am not advocating for Nunnelee or McGlowan or Ross, I am simply making a political observation. Yes, this is a conservative district and yes this is a GOP-friendly year, but Childers will be a formidable challenge that will require many things to go right for the GOP to regain this seat. A fight among GOP loyalists is not one of them.
In the end, I imagine Ross or McGlowan would have a showing similar to Randy Russell in 2008 than a bare-knuckle fight (although McGlowan would probably draw national media and possibly raise her profile). Yet it is also very probable that this is the last, best chance for the GOP to unseat Childers. We know the state’s history when it comes to re-electing incumbents at the federal level.
As I said yesterday, the Democrats excelled at limiting primaries in 2006 and 2008- and have the results to show what happens when you follow that model. I am sure the GOP is trying to emulate that, but what will the candidates do?
Brett well said. Am I the only person who wants my rep to actually live in this area and know what it’s like to live here. To know the issues and challenges that we face in North Mississippi. No offense to anyone but how can McGlowan know this she lives NOT HERE!
Even Travis gets that.
Sorry Brett,
I want the right to vote for the candidate of my choice and not have that person given to me by the Political Elite of the Republican party. You want things to remain the same ole crappy back room deal making way it has been. Have you not been listening – Are you listening now – we are taking our country back and that includes the political parties.
That’s fine Charlotte, I am not saying anything about back room deals or picking who you want- I am making a political point: a primary will not help Republicans and can only hurt them. Wasn’t advocating one way or the other or for one candidate or the other, just laying out my point concerning primaries.
Well Bret,
If we don’t have primaries, how do the people pick their candidate?
Brett thanks for your opinion but I don’t think you make your case. The example you used (Davis) was not very compelling considering many critics and arm-chair pundits believe Davis did not do the work outside of his comfort zone (DeSoto). I do not know if it is true or not, but he obviously lost. The R.v.D. voters will always show up and can be measured easily, but the tale of the tape I believe is with new created bases. Childers built his base district wide while the Davis base was mostly in DeSoto County. A primary challenge is almost always hated by candidates and their staff, but truth be told, more times than not; it helps by bringing new people into the process thereby enlarging the base. The flip side is when the primary gets too heated and one faction gets alienated and that has an opposite effect. Again I appreciate your opinion but I would like to see other examples supporting your position.
Suggesting that 01 does not need a primary when only one candidate has officially filed with MSGOP is essentially a defacto endorsement of the only person who has filed, Nunnelee. While you make reference to how a primary in one case led to a Dem winning, a lack of primary competition is not the reason why most candidates win. If anything, Davis didn’t win because, like you said in the past, he was a mediocre candidate and he did not build relationships outside of his home turf. Besides that, it was a geographically polarizing primary and the Tupelo area did not support the GOP candidate in the general. I believe that if Nunnelee, the heir apparent, is going to win in November he will need a little competition (practice) to best be prepared to win. He has not had a seriously contested race in a very long time and Childers is a formidable opponent that he will need to be prepared to fight. Nunnelee won’t waste his entire treasury on a primary because it will easily be replenished by the RNCC and GOP interest groups. As you know, he is under the watchful eye of the RNCC already. And secondly, since Nunnelee has been cherry picked to run anyways, you can only assume that he will be so strong that he will blow away the primary competition, right??
I’ll never forget when the “powers that be”, a group of GOP insiders handpicked a candidate in the wake of Jon Henley resigning from Congress and gave the seat to the Democrats until the district was restructured so Chip Pickering could win in the area.
The public, including those large numbers of independents that may like a candidate in a party primary, should elect who they think best represents them; not who passes a litmus test for today’s supposedly ‘conservatives’ that are less concerned with fiscal responsibility and public trust than they are their own personal agendas. Let Angela run. Let Ross run. In fact this is a good time for the conservative voters in the district to choose the person they think best represents them, not ‘good ole boys (and girls) that belong to the GOP club.