Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball Moves MS-01 To Lean R
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, which analyzes races from around the country, recently took a look at House races and sees MS-01 flipping to Republicans. Sabato doesn’t do as much updating as other forecasters such as Charlie Cook, Stuart Rothenberg, or CQ Politics, but is certainly among the most well respected.
The Rothenberg Report was the first to give the GOP the edge when it moved the race into the Tilt Republican column. That signifies a weak GOP advantage. Sabato did not have any such option in his ratings- going with the more traditional Toss-Up, Lean or Likely. Cook and CQ Politics are still calling it a toss-up. We also consider this a toss-up as well.
The national forecasters look at the makeup of the district, the percentage of the incumbents win last time around and probably most importantly the current political environment.
Besides those factors, we also look at local issues, candidates, and the mood of the district. Obviously, it is easier to get a more detailed feel when you are just looking at one or two districts, not 435.
