Healthcare Polling and Mississippi

While some healthcare polling has been done on a state or even Congressional district level, we have seen nothing in Mississippi which should not be too surprising. That said, I looked at some national polls and we’ll try to relate them to the Magnolia State.

First, here is the Real Clear Politics average of polls. It looks at the nine most recent healthcare polls going back to mid-February. They find an average of 41 percent favor the plan, 49 percent oppose it. Keep in mind, that the nation as a whole is certainly not as conservative as Mississippi. The Cook Partisan Voting Index has Mississippi as R+9 as a state (meaning it is nine points more Republican than the country as a whole). That would put opposition to the plan somewhere in the upper 50s, with support in the lower 30s. We would probably see an opposition spread of somewhere around 20-25 points.

Looking specifically at the First District, it has a PVI of R+14- so it is more Republican than the state. Those numbers would put opposition to healthcare reform in Travis Childers’ district in the mid 60s, with support for the bill in the upper 20s (an opposition spread of greater than 40 points).

Second, we have a couple recent polls that look at the racial split on healthcare reform. A Wall Street Journal/ NBC poll recently said this: “…Majorities of African-Americans and liberal Democrats, as well as a plurality of Latinos, would be less likely to vote for their representative in Congress if he or she voted against the health-care plan.”

Public Policy Polling, in a poll that showed a 45-49 split on healthcare overall, shows whites oppose it by a margin of 36-59, while blacks support it by a margin of 77-9. African-American voters in Mississippi generally vote like African-Americans nationally so we could assume those numbers would look similar on a state level. It is quite clear that Bennie Thompson’s support for this bill is in line with the wishes of those in his district.

But the white vote, as we know, is much more Republican/ conservative than the nation as a whole. John McCain won white voters 55-43 nationally, while winning them by a margin of 88-11 in Mississippi. If you’re looking at the +/- on this, we could say white voters in Mississippi are about 30 points more Republican than white voters nationally. So that 36-59 split nationally on healthcare among white voters is way off in the state. You would have to imagine opposition is around 80-90 percent among this group, probably without double digit support.

What does this all mean? Anyway you slice it, healthcare reform is not popular in Mississippi as a whole, and when you look at the three districts outside of the Second, it is extremely unpopular. You most likely knew that, I just wanted to add some numbers to back that up.