Primary Turnout
With the June 1st primary falling on the Tuesday after Memorial Day this year, turnout may be a significant issue affecting the final results. Conventional wisdom would tell you that turnout- which is already traditionally low for Congressional primaries- would be even lower as people are either 1) on vacation for that entire week or 2) just coming back to work on Tuesday (are backed up in the office because of the long weekend) and don’t have time to vote.
For the last midterm primary (2006), there were a total of about 110,000 votes cast statewide, with about 92,000 of those coming in the Second District where Bennie Thompson was being challenged by Chuck Espy. That primary, however, was more like a general election in the overwhelmingly Democratic district.
With the lack of competitive primaries in the past- where people felt that the winner of that primary had a legitimate shot at defeating the incumbent- it really is tough to get a gauge on the numbers we will see a week from next Tuesday. Despite the increased intensity- especially on the Republican side- we haven’t seen primary numbers this year that are anything out of the norm.
If absentee ballots are a sign of things to come, turnout may be very low. As of yesterday, the Commercial Appeal was reporting just 33 absentee ballots had been cast in Desoto county; ten in Tate. All of the campaigns have been sending out blast emails and posting notices about absentee voting, which is fairly standard, but Memorial Day just adds a new wrinkle to each campaign’s GOTV effort.
It will be interesting to say the least. You can’t be certain if the reason there are so few absentee ballots is because everyone’s broke and will be here anyway or if they’re going nowhere in order to make sure their vote gets counted up front.
I believe Brett has brought up a very good point to ponder here. I have said all along that the person who wins the primary is going to be the one who can “inspire” his supporters to get to the polls and vote. It would make sense that the one(s) in the different reasons that have been campaigning the longest on a people-to-people scale will be able to get the most voters out on election day….those people who believe they have the most at stake and those who feel like they have something “invested” in their candidate—and I am not talking about money.
Ross’ supporters are absolutely that base. Nunnelee has the money and will get the votes of the elected officials and GOP big players, but Ross is the candidate of the mechanic, main street lawyer, small business owner, clergy, etc. He’s been there more often and more effectively than anyone else! This one should be interesting…
Shad when you say “He’s been there more often than anyone else” are you refering to the ballot. We all know that Ross has been there more than anyone else!
Too bad for him he seems to loose more than win.
I am glad to know that I am a “GOP big player” because I had no idea that I am one.
I am voting for Nunnelee because I feel he is the best man for the job.
You should watch his COMMERCIALS they are great!
Just what is Ross’ win loss record in his runs for office?
1 Win and 7 Losses that is pretty bad.
He seems like a decent guy but maybe he needs to stick to being a lawyer!
A 76 year old gentleman shared with me a statistic yesterday I will share with you. “92% of all communicative obstruction lies with the listener not the source”. Any logical minded individual could understand that I was referencing Mr. Ross’ unrivaled commitment to being the candidate that has engaged the most amount of “common-folk” voters. Just read the Commercial Appeals article yesterday. We supporters are not the only ones who are noticing this! Your “If by Whiskey” Pro-Nunnelee comments make me smile… Thank you
TPL II is that you? I know you like to read and smile.
Shad, I am glad you are so supportive of Ross, many people feel the same way about Nunnelee. Nunnelee has made the hard choices and cuts that we all want except when the cuts effect us. I am sure he will lose some votes for these hard decisions. I know that since he can make these cuts in an election year, he can and will do this when he goes to Washington. I may be naive but, I feel that everytime some one in the government says that want to “help” you,somebody’s taxes are going up.
Paid for and Approved by Alan Nunnelee
Shad,
Or should I say TPLII we are still waiting on that polling information. Shame on you for embarrassing yourself to the point you have to go incognito.
To you I will say your message has been paid for and approved by Travis Childers. After all he and Ross share polling information.
Here I am Red and I am not incognito. Just sat in a doctor’s office most of the day so I did not have the benefit of your wisdom. It is always a pleasure to read your “stuff” and know you are behind Nunnelee. Just helps the other candidates so much!!!!!
TPLII,
Still waiting for that polling data!
It is on its way baby!!
One good thing about sitting around all day you can make phone calls and I did. You will see it soon.
OOPs, I am sorry ME forgot to say hello to you!
You are 100% right on that Shad.
Now it is answering itself.
Voter turn out is the key to the election. I expect that many Conservatives will be voting in this years Republican Primary. There will also be some wolves in sheeps clothing. Many of the voters will be democrates attempting to influence the results. This will be especially true in the first and fourth districts. The democrates will vote for the person that they most likly do want to face in the general election. The most recent democrate primaries all across the Country has resulted in the incumbent losing to a fresh face democrate that did not vote for health care. The democrate stratagy for members that did not vote for health care is to beat the republican challanger in the primary, that has a chance to win in November. It will be intresting to see who wins.
McGlowan has been asking democrats, and independents to vote for her in the primary. Heard this from her on mouth in one of her interviews.
On a slightly similar line…I’ve heard talk about Democrats voting in the primary to oppose Nunnelee and make him look bad by lowering his vote % total. To try to really alter an election is extremely difficult and I just don’t see the energy there. In 2008, I voted for Hillary Clinton in primary as part of what Rush was promoting at that time. I believe it was called ‘Operation Chaos.’ I even skipped out on the competitive GOP primary in MS03 to vote on the Dem side (and therefore couldn’t vote in the runoff). I will say it was very weird asking for a Democratic ballot in Rankin county- very short line though.
Shad, You might be surprised to know that Nunnelee has support from regular folks too! He has MY support and I am not a big GOP money person or an elected official. I like Nunnelee because he is such a loud voice for the unborn babies of Mississippi and because I know several people (regualr folks like me) who have called on him for help and he has been there for them. His voting record is solid conservative and he has not taken any negative shots at the other candidates. I am sure if he wanted to there would be something to criticize them for but he has taken the high road. That being said, I will support Ross if he wins the Primary because I think he is a man of integrity. Unfortunatley he does not have a voting record to compare him to Nunnelee so I am not sure if he will do what he says.
I second that.
A low turn out spells doom for the more establishment candidates in D1 and D4. The more grass roots styled candidates will have a very good day if that happens. With a low turn out I can easily predict a Tegerdine victory in D4. D1 will not be nearly as easy to predict but Ross will certainly fair better than most anticipate.
An average to large turn out will reverse my prediction in D4 and D1.
In district one the tea Party people will be split between Ross and McGlowan, Nunnelee seems to be the traditional candidate. McGlowan has no issues , just personal controversy, Ross has loyal supporters who should have anted up for some ads, Nunnelee has the broad base supporters who put their money where their mouths are.
Nunnelee has been a GREAT state senator and I hope to see him get a chance to be a great congressman. He gets re-elected because the people he represents in Lee and Pontotoc county like the job he is doing. Period end of sentence! Why cant the Ross and Nunnelee supporters admit that we have 2 good choices in the primary? I am thankful to God that we have good choices for a change. Praying God’s blessing on this district and for the stamina the elected candidate will need for the race to come against the liberal, highly financed train of democrats that are supporting Childers and aiming to destroy our Conservative candidate.
It is no secret that I am a Ross supporter from day one. I was fortunate enough to have some one on ones with Ross early in the campaign. What impressed me the most was his high degree of trust in God and his dedication to his family. When he talked about many of the issues within our current administration that have been troubling me as well, I could hear myself in his words. He truly believes that our country is in trouble and wants to help. His knowledge of constitutional law is outstanding and it shows in the debates. His enthusiasm is infectious and I think this is why he has so many loyal supporters. I have never seen a candidate work so hard and go so strong day after day. He has been all over District 1; at church meetings, club breakfasts, small mom and pop businesses and door to door. It would not surprise me to find out that he has personally shook the hand of over 1/2 the people in Distict 1. Ross also doesn’t just breeze by and smile, he will stop to answer questions, which is rare when campaigns are in such full swing. I truly like him as a person and when he speaks, I feel he speaks for me and for everyone in Mississippi who is worried about their freedom disappearing and the future of their families. I truly hope he will win because if he does I know that our state, our district, will be well represented, and that he is going to make positive improvements.
I hear his critics saying he has lost races and he has; one when he was only seventeen. Abraham Lincoln also had that to contend with but he too wanted to serve and was finally elected. He turned out to be a truly great man so maybe loosing builds character and determination.
It is not my intention to preach and I will not argue with anyone on this page but really wanted to post this because the election is not so far away. If you are still wavering about who to vote for, please take a really close look at Ross. If you have not read the 13 questions that he answered for Les Riley – look at them and get to know Ross.
I am a member of the Tea Party and I am really fed up with what has been happening in Washington, DC. I want to see Nancy Pelosi out of power and Obama outnumbered with conservatives so that he cannot continue to do harm to our nation. That being said, I also think it is just as important to vote for the right person so that we can rest assured that we are electing someone who will not allow our government to get in the mess we are in again – at least not in my lifetime.
That is why so many of us are for Henry Ross. I believe the Tea Party voters will make a difference in this election.
Charlotte- Ross is no Abraham Lincoln.
Well said, Miss Charlotte. The Tea Party will make a difference in the election and it will be for Ross.