Ross: We Have Reason To Believe The Election Is ‘Neck and Neck’
On the heels of their first television ad of the election debuting yesterday, the Henry Ross campaign sent out an email calling the primary a horse race. The email said, “The campaign has been given credible reason to believe that the election is neck and neck despite being vastly outspent, adding, “While we are still campaigning to the voters, our major opponent is busy raising money- a week from an election that’s a sure sign of trouble for our opponent.”
It Takes A Village? In other campaign news, Ross was joined by Angela McGlowan at a debate in Oxford last night. Alan Nunnelee could not attend because of a prior commitment. You can read a write-up on the debate from the Daily Journal here. Besides the general questions and answers you have seen and heard before, one of the more unusual questions came when the candidates were asked, “How many babies should a single lady have before the federal government stops giving her pay raises?
Ross responded by saying, “I don’t think the federal government should pay for the personal irresponsibility of others.” McGlowan sounded a similar theme saying that the problem starts at home but said the community needs to be involved to find the solutions. “It really does take a village to raise a child,” McGlowan said.
They are correct… It is a horse race to see whether Angela or Henry will come in 3rd. Angela beat Henry in fundraising so it will be close.
Tom,
Don’t be so sure. I think Alan has to win the whole thing without a run off or it will be Ross.
I have worked with all three candidates on different projects & events. I like all three of them personally & have not/ will not endorse any of the three. All three have strengths & weaknesses as candidates & particularly in what kind of Congressman they will make.
I think from day one the primary has been Alan’s to lose — but he has been running this way : like an incumbent. This could hurt him in the primary and/ or the general election.
Angela has been shooting at Alan (& anything that will move) but generally hitting her own foot.
Ross has run a smart campaign. But he is not a charismatic figure and does not have a long resume’ of being a fighter — or leading on issues/ in areas that excite people – despite saying some bold-sounding things, his career is marked by “playing it safe”.
Right now, I believe Alan will win with slightly over 50% in the primary unless Ross and/ or Angela can drop a bomb in the last 10 days. However, dropping said bomb will hurt whoever the nominee is in the general election (whether its Alan or Ross).
Ross will likely get about 35 to 38% and Angela will end up with whatever is left.
However, if Ross can somehow get enough of a last push to keep Alan below 50%, Ross will likely win the run off unless Alan’s people get nasty (which will, again, hurt him in the General).
I think if Nunnalee ends up in a run-off with Ross, almost all of Angela’s support will switch to Ross — and almost none to Alan.
******************************************
In the General — even in this political climate; even in the socially conservative 3rd District — unseating Travis Childers will be very difficult.
First: There are multiple 3rd Party & Independent candidates.
Of those, I think that only Constitution Party Candidate Gail Giaramita (Hernando), Independent Les Green (Hernando), and Independent Wally Pang (Batesville) — who each have a following and/ or a unique campaign niche — can impact the race. Whatever support any or all of them get (likely 2 to 7% collectively) will come off of the GOP.
Second: Childers got elected through his connections at the county courthouses; through getting all the left wing & black votes; and through running as an “aw shucks” country-boy/ conservative Democrats (much like Jim Hood) to get the rural white vote. He has been very visible in farm country.
He has done nothing to make these people mad (unless of course, the GOP can hang him with Pelosi/ Obama more successfully than they did in 2008. . . . or if the Republican campaign will go after him with the one issue that they have not touched thus far.
Third: Childers voted against the Health Care Bill and Against Cap & Trade. Regardless of how the other campaign tries to spin it, Childers can tell the old men at the coffee shop: “They’re telling lies about me. I voted against those bills. I’m a conservative Democrat. Like you”.
Fourth: On a related note. Childers’ rhetoric & a surface examination of his record looks pro-life. He will also likely have the endorsement of the NRA. I like Gun Owners of America much better, but NRA is much bigger & better known. Their standing policy is if there are two candidates they consider equal on guns, they endorse the incumbent. Someone is going to have to dig up a gun grabber skeleton in Travis’ closet to get the NRA to endorse the Republican.
* So, Childers can run as a pro-life, pro-gun, rural, incumbent Democrat. An almost unbeatable combination in rural Miss.
Fifth: Childers appears to have a surprising amount of support in Lee & DeSoto County (certainly not a majority, but the GOP needs overwhelming victory in these areas — probably 75% in DeSoto to win)
Finally: Democrats up here are chomping at the bit to get at Nunnalee. They have a number of things that they say they can go after him with (I don’t know what any of them are), but Northeast Miss Democrats I talk to seem giddy at the prospect.
I had lunch with Alan & his campaign manager in January. I told them that Alan is seen by some as a pragmatist and if I was running an opposing campaign I would pick apart his voting record and paint him this way.
They were offended. (this was the same meeting that I discussed the Questionnaire w/ Alan :
http://rileydad.wordpress.com/2010/05/06/henry-ross-answers-dist-1-questionnaire/
Any GOP Candidate is going to have his hands full. Unless something changes Travis will go back in by a nose (much to my chagrin).
Contrary to popular opinion, Nunnalee may actually have a harder time than Ross.
If you’ll bear with me, I’ll follow up this WAY TOO LONG comment with my opinion on how Ross or Nunnallee can win
First a correction. I said :
“even in this political climate; even in the socially conservative 3rd District”
* Obviously, I meant 1st District. I was thinking about the “3rd Party” angle when I typed that.
My thoughts on a path to a Nunnalee/ Ross victory in the General.
1) Forget about trying to tie Travis to Pelosi or even Obama. Let the talk radio/ TEA Party/ national GOP do that for you.
2) “Out-Conservative” Travis w/o attacking him. Run a positive “conservative message” (Ross’ “Faith, Family, & Freedom” message is a great example).
3) On the gun issue, to quote Nathan Bedford Forrest : “Get there firstest with the mostest”.
Start immediately after the primary playing up guns big (this may be the one issue to hammer Childers with the National Democrat connection).
Say really loud, and really often, in a really clever way TO THE RIGHT PEOPLE that you are the “pro-gun” guy. Then whatever Travis says later looks like “me too”.
4) Court the TEA Party folks & get them working hard for you. Figure out a way to focus their energy/ anger into an effective campaign machine in key areas (no small task).
5) PERSONHOOD. PERSONHOOD. PERSONHOOD.
We will not be endorsing a candidate, but we got the signatures of over 30,000 registered voters in the current 1st District. If I were running in this race, that would get my attention & I would figure out a way to reach out to those people and tell the world that I’m the “pro-personhood’ candidate
6) Reach out to the 3rd Party Candidates/ Independents & try to get them to drop out of the race and support the GOP nominee (which will be a difficult, if not nearly impossible task; but, very much worth the effort).
I know many mainstream folks here dismiss these campaigns/ parties, but the number of votes they get in a tight election could likely be the difference.
7) Make it local & anti-incumbant. Reach out to the local voters in rural counties. “Feel their pain”. Talk about Washington being out-of-touch and how the Bush-Obama bailouts have not worked.
Finally, this would be what I would win the campaign with.
8) HATE CRIMES BILL & the Gay Agenda. The National GOP won’t like it and the Mainstream Media (as well as some neo-con moderates) will call you a hate monger and much worse.
But, even though no one is talking about it, this is the one issue that could gut Travis Childers’ rural, white support and even erode some of his support in the black community.
I would hang Travis’ vote for the Hate Crimes Bill around his neck in front of every socially conservative church goer in North Mississippi (black & white) and make him wear the ugliest parts of the homo-fascist agenda like a neck tie everywhere he went.
Again, this would not make you any friends in the media or even in many GOP/ neo-con circles. Might even get you some more serious death threats than the ones Angela keeps trotting out.
But the public needs to know. Travis needs to be held accountable for this. And it just might be the difference between Nunnalee or Ross unseating him or Childers becoming the next Jamie Whitten.
My two (or maybe four) bits
Hey guys, what was the H.R. number of the Hate Crime Bill that Childers voted for? If it is HR 1913, opencongress.org shows him voting against it.
Never mind. I re-acted too quickly. I remember now that he voted for its final passage appearing to be supporting a Department of Defense military construction bill.
I knew she was a democrat all along. The response about it takes a village to raise a child is proof positive. Ross’s response was truthful, but a little harsh. Something does need to change when the people who are least responsible have the most children at tax payers expense.
I like harsh! Good job Ross. He is getting stronger.
Les,
Ross has been talking about the Hate Crimes Bill and the Gay Agenda in all his speeches and has taken a strong stand on both these items. Noticed that you said that no one was talking about these. Have you missed that?
That should offend you. You felt the Constance McMillen issue was wrong on the part of the school.
Red,
I said that the school mishandled it. If the administration had handled it correctly, the situation would not have blown up to the proportion that it did. I am against gay marriage but am not for embarrasing and ruining the life of a teenager to prove a point. If that had been my child I would file a law suit against the board for what they did to her. Obviously you ignored the young persons remarks on the site that seemed to know the situation from a personal level (probably another student and maybe friend to Constance). The administration knew about this girl and others from what I understand, and should have been ready to handle it. Someone or something has to agitate a situation, it doesn’t just happen to blow up like that one did without mishandling.
For over 200 years we’ve elected Democrats and Republicans. So why is it Mississippi is last in education , lowest wages and high unemployment ? The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different results. The only way we will ever get ahead is to elect people that aren’t beholden to a party but to the voters. The time has come to show Washington the people hold the power Not the party’s, OR will yall be fooled with the fast talk and slick adds?
Very good point Wally.
You da’ man Wally Pang!
Tea Party Leader II,
You are correct. It was a misstatement to say “no one has been talking about” the hate crimes bill. A better way to put it would be, this has not been made an issue in the media or in the campaign, thus far. It has been discussed at SOME of the TEA Parties & to a lesser degree on some blogs/ Christian talk radio.
I am more speaking of ads in county papers; direct mail; contacting every church in the district. Probably doing it via an ad hoc committee/ 527. . . .
Thank you Les.