MS-01 On NRCC’s Early Target List
One way that you know this is going to be a very good election cycle for Republicans is by taking a look at the targets for the DCCC and the NRCC- the campaign arms for both parties in the House. At the end of July, we noted that Travis Childers was among a group of 40 Democrats the DCCC would initially be backing financially. This first group featured incumbents exclusively.
Today, Politico has the first mention of the NRCC’s strategy. There 40 targets consists primarily seats held by vulnerable Democrats, as well as a few open seats. Among their targets: MS-01. What does this mean? Be prepared to see a lot of ads from Washington for and against Childers and Alan Nunnelee.
The Fourth District was not among the GOP’s target list.
With Childers going negative so early… Whether a Republican or Democrat does it, if you are an incumbent who goes negative in the middle of August you must be in serious trouble. And that is what Childers has done. His campaign criticized the poll numbers that the Nunnelee camp released, but all signs show they must be seeing something that isn’t positive for their side.
The Nunnelee lead was the highlight of their poll from earlier this summer, but the favorability spread for the Republican state Senator was just something that really jumped out to me. Nunnelee was sporting a +36 net favorability at the time, and the only way to bring that down is for the other side to go negative.
Childers had about a 4 to 1 cash-on-hand advantage at the end of the second quarter so he can really hit the airwaves. It will be interesting as to when- and how- Nunnelee responds.
More bad polling numbers for Democrats. As I previously opined, the strategy of defense vs. offense is a good way of finding out which way the political winds are blowing but here is another way: look at polling.
Two polls over the last couple days continue to drive home the narrative that this will not only be a bad cycle for Democrats- but the House could very possibly flip. A Rasmussen poll asked if it would be better if most incumbents were to be re-elected or defeated. By a 62-23 margin, voters said defeated. But honestly, that is an easy question and the old story line goes something like ‘hate Congress, love your Congressman.’ But, there was another question asked. When asked specifically as to whether their local representative should be re-elected: 37 percent said Yes, 39 percent said No, and 24 percent were not sure. Just 37 percent in favor is extremely low no matter how you put in.
And for a potentially more telling poll, here is the latest from Gallup. In the most recent tracking poll, Republicans have now taken a 50-43 lead among registered voters. As far as we know, that is an all-time high for Republicans and an all-time low for Democrats. If Republicans were to actually win by seven points in the House, there is no doubt Republicans would gain control.
Constitution Party candidate releases ad. MS-01 candidate Gail Giaramita, who is running on the Constitution Party ticket, recently released a campaign spot which I am told will air on W07BN (out of Bruce) and Channel 97 (out of Oxford). The ad is below the fold.