The Fun That Is Redistricting Looms

Redistricting hearings are underway throughout the state as legislators hope to have new House and Senate lines drawn in time for the 2011 elections. If they fail to achieve this, legislators will have to stand for re-election the following year (2012) under the new lines.

Some background: There are ten members on the Legislative Reapportionment committee in the Senate- 5 Republicans and 5 Democrats. The committee is chaired by Sen. Terry Burton, a Republican, and the vice-chair is Sen. Tommy Dickerson, a Democrat. In the House, there are nine members on the committee- with just one Republican represented. The chair and the vice-chair, as you would imagine, are Democrats. Billy McCoy’s scorched earth policy following his narrow victory is as evident on this committee as it is anywhere.

At stake is the makeup of the 122 member House and 52 member Senate. Here is some of what we know based on 2009 Census estimates (and what we are seeing is no different in Mississippi than most states). The smaller, rural counties continue to lose population and the suburbs continue to grow. The only difference here is that the growth is not evident in the urban areas, i.e. Jackson. Hinds county actually lost 3,000 residents over the past nine years (the city of Jackson dropped by nearly 8,000). In the Delta, losses were bigger. Leflore lost nine percent, Bolivar lost nearly 10 percent, Coahoma lost 12 percent, and Washington and Sunflower both lost 13 percent. Issaquena, already a tiny county, lost 29 percent of its population. Other smaller, rural counties experienced losses, or simply no growth, but generally not to the numbers seen in the Delta.

As for Katrina’s effect, two Coast counties- Hancock and Harrison- saw losses to their population around four percent each. Jackson county saw a slight uptick. But the three counties directly to their north cashed in with an 18 percent gain in George, 19 percent gain in Pearl River and 22 percent gain in Stone.

The metro Jackson counties of Madison and Rankin both saw growth around 24 percent. Other suburban counties enjoyed strong growth, including 28 percent in Lamar, 12 percent in Forrest, and eight percent in Lee. But the biggest winner of all was Desoto, without a doubt. The population jumped 48 percent, or about 51,000 new people over this time.

The interesting thing is that as the population dwindled in the majority-black counties in the state, while increasing in the majority-white suburbs, the black share of the population increased slightly from 36.6 to 37.2, while the white percentage dipped from 62.4 to 60.5. That would lead a person to believe that blacks are simply moving into the suburban areas, which generally have more jobs, better school and less crime.

On the surface, the Delta is set to lose seats- simple as that. And while it is easy to carve out majority-black districts in that part of the state, replacing them with similar districts in the high growth parts of the state will be virtually impossible. The chairman of this process in the House, Tommy Reynolds (D-Charleston), said head count should not be the only consideration in drawing legislative districts, but they should be relatively compact and represent “communities of interest.” There is generally some wiggle room in terms of district population, but there cannot be any great disparity.

However it is evident the number of majority black district should and will remain the same. That means, the members most likely to see their seats changing greatly- or eliminated- will be the rural white (often times Democratic) legislators- which Billy McCoy is head of. Should be very interesting.

My prediction: this is settled by the courts.

Note: All data was obtained from the 2009 U.S. Cenus QuickFacts.