Interesting Scenario If Childers And Taylor Win
I continue to believe that national winds will be the deciding factor in the Congressional elections in the First and Fourth. Meaning, if Republicans disappoint and maybe gain a dozen seats I could see Travis Childers and Gene Taylor both winning another term (Taylor more easily than Childers). If Republicans have gains from the two to three dozen range, there is little hope for Childers while Taylor most likely wins. If we have the gains of 50 plus and the GOP really does win by 10 points, both Taylor and Childers are gone. That is just the nature of House races. That said, we will also most likely see members or candidates buck the trend.
Let’s say both Childers and Taylor do that- and win re-election- while there party drops around three dozen seats. Republicans need 39 seats to capture the majority and guarantee a Republican Speaker (assuming all Republicans stay in line and we have no reason to think otherwise).
But for some fun and drama, what if the Republicans are two or three seats shy of that majority? The run-up to the Speaker vote in January would be like nothing we have seen. Obviously, the 2008 Speaker vote in Mississippi between Billy McCoy and Jeff Smith was intense and something for the ages- but just put that on a national scale. In this scenario, Democrats are doing everything they can to hold all there members- including Taylor and Childers- while the Republicans put pressure on them to come over to their side. They could effectively be what is standing between Nancy Pelosi as Speaker or Nancy Pelosi as Minority Leader in this case.
This leads to the next question: what would they do in that situation? You can argue the 2007 and 2009 votes for Pelosi did not matter much considering the overwhelming majority Democrats had, but what happens if that is not the case.
Or does a Blue Dog (Heath Schuler joked about this recently) make a run, get enough members from within that ranks and enough Republicans who feel Pelosi is unbeatable otherwise to join them.
Taylor and Childers seem to dismiss concerns about their vote for Pelosi. If they survive 2010, it is without question that their Speaker vote will be a significant one in January 2011.
Taylor has said, publically, that Pelosi promised him “something” in exchange for his vote for her and that she never delivered the promise. Now, if true why won’t Taylor reveal what the promise was that she broke? And if so would he ever be willing to incur the wrath of his constituents AGAIN if he dared vote for her? NO. Too many Conservative Republicans and Conservative Democrats(who are not well informed, otherwise they would not be Democrats) are angry at both the agenda and the attitude of Pelosi and it would be suicide for Taylor to vote for her again. But, let’s be hopeful that it won’t come down to that and Taylor will be gone along with any chances that Pelosi will be Speaker of the House again, EVER!!!!!
The promise was that she would deliver passage of multi-peril insurance legislation for the people of the Gulf Coast…I think it passed in the House, not sure; but dont’ think even came up for a vote in the Senate……….which was a VERY weak reason to vote for her….not just once, but TWICE; so, I think that he was just using that as an alibi to vote with the party.
Then, to address your next question, his constituents voted him back in after his first vote for Pelosi, so why would they not do it again…they’ve continued to put him there for 20+ years with nothing to show for it, so why wouldn’t they do it again? Baffles the heck out of me….I think they just vote coz he just a good ole boy that they don’t ever hear any bad things about. Which is a crying shame! What they need is a “fighter”; but it don’t look like they are going to get it, no matter who wins this year.
Brett, are there any polls that show how the race is going in District 2??
Taylor and Childers will both tow the party line if Pelosi needs them. That is why they both need to be replaced.
True. when in doubt, take them out. Brett, I guess no news about District 2….
Both Taylor, Thompson and Childres has their noses so far up Obama and Pelosi’s butts if they make a fast turn it would break them off. Yet you people in these three Dists. that vote for these scumb bags are too stupid to see that. Just like you can’t see that Thompson and Taylor voted for the Obama health care. Stupid, stupid and if you don’t like be called that say something to change my mind. If you calll your self a Conv. and vote for Taylor you are a lair.