Maximize Gains Or Protect Incumbents?
In a follow up to my post earlier this morning on John Diez, the redistricting guru hired by the House Republicans, I have heard that Republicans in the Senate are looking to follow a different path. What I’ve been told is that Reapportionment Chairman Terry Burton has opted for an incumbency protection plan rather than trying to maximize the number of Republican seats.
One insider I talked with said that Burton was “dead set” on this plan, and said it will likely keep Republicans from making the gains they otherwise could have in the upper chamber. He basically said that instead of a 57 percent district, they want a 70 percent district.
How this shakes up remains to be seen. And this is the tricky part: How do you draw districts to maximize your party’s ability to win seats while not cutting it so close that you endanger incumbents? There is a fine line that could certainly come back to hurt you if you cross it.
Is the GOP more worried about keeping the outsiders out than they are about gaining seats?
I think it is a matter of reality. I will still be surprised if they don’t take advantage of carving a new district out of Desoto but statewide, the population shifts would not warrant many newly drawn districts. On the house side however, clearly Desoto may net as many as 2 new seats while Madison, Rankin, Pearl River and Forrest-Lamar may all net 1 new seat while Harrison and the Delta could loose as many as 5 seats combined. I’m sure the GOP knows and will take advantage of all of the possibilities..