Any Competitive Senate Races?

Earlier today, we gave you a preview of open Senate seats along with details on the last few incumbents who have yet to make their 2011 plans public. Here I will look at the incumbents who are running for re-election, and for this post is a lot easier to look at races where incumbents will face either a primary or general election challenges. Perhaps challengers are waiting out redistricting, but the June 1 deadline is rapidly approaching and most incumbents will get a free ride to a new four-year term if this holds.

Senators in SD 21, 32, 40 and 52 face primary challenges. In SD 21, Kenneth Jones will be met in Democratic primary by Franklin Mallet and Joseph Thomas. In SD 32, Sampson Jackson faces a challenge in the Democratic primary from Clark Adams. Both are safe D seats, but Republican do have a candidate in SD 21- Loren Ross. Sidney Albritton (SD 40) faces a challenge from Angela Hill and Tommy Moffatt will face off with Brice Wiggins. No Democrats have qualified in those two districts.

A general election matchup will occur in SD 2, 4, 7, 21, 22, 24, 29, 31, and 46. Of those, two are Republican held seats. Terry Burton faces a challenge from Melvin Hendricks in SD 31. In SD 22, Buck Clarke faces Mala Brooks. Clarke’s district was around 42 percent BVAP following the last round of redistricting. Under the Burton map, it was drawn so that it would be right at 50. And under the current lines, it is presently around 53 percent. This could be a tough one for the two-term incumbent regardless of what maps they are running under.

As for the Democrats, Bill Stone (SD 2) faces Michael Cobb, Eric Powell (SD 4) will meet the winner of the GOP primary which includes John Orman and Rita Parks, Hob Bryan (SD 7) will face Stephen Ford, David Jordan (SD 24) faces independent challenger Rogrick Wardell, David Blount (SD 29) will face the winner of Gerald Kucia and Steve Stanford in the GOP primary and David Baria (SD 46) will face the winner of the GOP primary which includes Brian Cuevas and Fred Sullivan. Constitution Party candidate James Overstreet has also qualified.

Under the Burton map, Baria got placed in the same district with Ezell Lee, a Republican from SD 47. We obviously don’t know what the maps will look like, but this could force Lee- who changed parties earlier this year- to win a GOP primary should Cuevas and Sullivan be living in the new district. Regardless, among Senate seats with a Democratic incumbent, this is likely the GOP’s best chance for a pickup.

I would also classify Powell’s district as potentially competitive. I would say SD 2 and SD 7 are a little too “yellow-dog” still, plus you have incumbents running. SD 29 would become majority-black under the Burton map. It already is under the 2002 maps. Blount should be fine.