Taking A Look At The State Senate

Doing any type of election analysis at this point deserves a significant asterisk saying subject to change as a result of redistricting. But we still wanted to look at the Senate races, with that asterisk in place.

In the Senate, there are six open seats: SD 20 (Lee Yancey), SD 25 (Walter Michel), SD 39 (Cindy Hyde-Smith), SD 43 (Tommy Dickerson), SD 44 (Tom King) and SD 49 (Billy Hewes). We have three incumbents who have yet to qualify: Jack Gordon (SD 8), Derrick Simmons (SD 12), and Willie Simmons (SD 13). This is as of a week ago.

Looking at the incumbents who haven’t qualified both the Simmons’ are pretty interesting. Derrick Simmons just won a special election for that seat. I wouldn’t know of any reason they haven’t qualified; no one else has qualified either. They both represent strong Democratic majority-black districts in the Delta and would stay in the D column regardless of who runs.

Gordon has had health issues for some time now and there has long been thinking that he would not be running for re-election. As far as we know, he hasn’t made any public declarations. Under the Burton redistricting map, his district would be merged with Republican Lydia Chassaniol’s.

Among the open seats, the 20th and 25th are as solidly Republican as probably any in the state. Three Republicans have qualified for SD 20: Steve Gaines, Josh Harkins, and Knox Ross. Two Republicans have qualified for SD 25: Charles Barbour and Will Longwitz. SD 49 will also stay Republican with only Republican Sean Tindell qualifying at this point. The 39th should be a Republican district (although Hyde-Smith had won as a conservative Democrat in the past). So far, three Republicans have qualified: Bill Boerner, Sally Dotty and David Nichols. They are joined by Democrat Michael Smith.

The 43rd District represents a prime GOP pickup opportunity. Dickerson had actually qualified before making the recent decision to retire. Right now, the only qualifiers are two Republicans: Bobby Hendry and Connie Wilkerson. We talked more about this race and some rumors surrounding it earlier this week.

SD 44 was the much talked about Republican district that would be collapsed under the Burton map to create a majority-black Pine Belt district. Again, that is in limbo but we only have one qualifier for the open seat- Republican Tim Ryan.

Look for a post later today with details on races where incumbents have challengers. Hint: there aren’t many who do. But again, remember that asterisk.