Drama Won’t End On November 8

Unless Republicans win a majority in the House and Senate on Election Day, there is a good chance the R vs. D battles within each chamber will continue post-November 8.

If Republicans claim 62 seats and the majority in the House, we know their will be a Republican Speaker. The drama will be within the party on whom that man or woman is. If Republicans net nothing in the House, however, I believe we could predict the Democratic caucus nominee will be the new Speaker.

Where it gets murky, and the drama potentially unfolds in the House, is if Republicans net three to five seats and are sitting in the high 50s. That is where all the fun backroom dealing, pledges, and un-kept pledges will occur. At that point, a Republican/ conservative Speaker is very much a possibility and I imagine we will see much of what we saw four years ago between Billy McCoy and Jeff Smith.

As for the Senate, did you know the Democrats netted three seats in 2007 to claim a 28-24 majority? Probably so, but with Phil Bryant running the chamber along with several conservative Democrats on board, the media often referred to the chamber as ‘Republican controlled.’ And certainly, it was and has been the body of conservative legislation in Mississippi for the past eight years. Today, Republicans are back to the 27-25 majority they enjoyed pre-2007 elections. The final partisan breakdown is certainly up in the air, but the question that will be asked is do Democrats attempt to strip the Republican lieutenant governor of his power?

If the Democrats net two seats or less, I don’t see that as being a viable option. At 28 or more members, it’s a possibility depending on who exactly those members are. The House outcome will also likely affect matters. If Republicans win control in that chamber, and Democrats have even a nominal majority in the Senate, you would have to imagine their will be a lot of pressure on Senate Democrats to win back power so they aren’t entirely shut out of the legislative process.