The 2011 Expectations Game

In politics, meeting, exceeding, or not reaching your expectations as a party can often matter as much as the final outcome. For example, if Democrats were to win a second statewide office this fall; taking back a GOP held seat to win their second office would be a bigger story than the Republicans winning (what would be described as) just six offices.

With that, here are my thoughts on expectations for each party this fall:

For Republicans…

1) Holding on to the seven statewide offices, along with the current PSC and Transportation seats they hold, plus picking up the open Transportation Commission seat in the Southern district, is expected.

2) Winning three to five seats in the House would make for a very good night, but winning a majority in the House (net pickup of eight seats) would make for a great night. (Tough to gauge the importance of the Senate because of the lieutenant governor’s power).

3) Defeating Jim Hood would make for an even better night.

For Democrats…

1) Holding onto seats held by Jim Hood and Brandon Presley (Northern District Public Service Commissioner) are expected.

2) Holding on to the House, with enough seats to elect the Democratic caucus choice, would make for a great night.

3) Picking off a Republican-held statewide office would make for an even better night. (Not predicting it by any means, but the treasurer’s race would likely be their best bet).