House Ratings To Be Released Soon

I am currently working on a state House ratings model that will be released shortly. Basically, it is meant to mirror what Rothenberg or Cook release on a national level but rating the 122 House seats. Most of these are actually fairly easy. A bulk have been decided in the primaries with no general election opponent and some others may have an opponent but the district simply isn’t in play. This cuts both ways.

Anyway, here are the numbers I am looking at:

- 44 seats are considered ‘Safe Republican’
- 46 seats are considered ‘Safe Democrat’
- 3 seats are considered ‘Likely Republican’
- 1 seat is considered ‘Likely Democrat’
- 3 seats are considered ‘Lean Republican
- 5 seats are considered ‘Lean Democrat’

Among those, all are currently held by the party that I believe they favor. This leaves 20 districts that are considered ‘Toss Up.’ Of those 20, 16 are currently held by Democrats, 4 by Republicans. And half of them, 10, are open seats- all retiring Democrats.

The magic number to a majority is 62, so going off the safe seats only Democrats need to win an additional 16 and the Republicans need to win an additional 18.

I was fairly conservative on the ratings meaning I didn’t go out on any limbs in making these calls, often sticking with the safer predictions for now.