House Ratings For All 122 Seats
I’ve carefully looked at, although many don’t need it, all 122 House districts and developed a rating system similar to Rothenberg or Cook on a national level. For this, I rated seats as either Safe Democrat, Likely Democrat, Lean Democrat, Toss Up, Lean Republican, Likely Republican, or Safe Republican. As I mentioned yesterday, most are in the ‘Safe’ category.
I have an unusually high number of ‘Toss Up’ seats in my opinion- 20. In such a race, you’d figure the race would be within about 10 points or less. I doubt we’ll have 20 races like that but I could be wrong. But on the competitive or potentially competitive races, I made the safer call at Toss Up rather than Lean in either direction (which is why I have so few Lean or Likely districts relatively speaking). I simply don’t have the resources to be able to get that in depth with all of these districts. If you were to point a gun to my head and ask me what I think, I could certainly give you my feelings but again, I took the safe route.
This is simply meant to be more of an overview so anyone interested could look at the playing field and see what is out there.
You can access the spreadsheet via Google Docs here
Once you have the spreadsheet pulled up, you can download it as Excel, CSV, and others.
Further breakdown here:
- 44 seats are considered ‘Safe Republican’
- 46 seats are considered ‘Safe Democrat’
- 3 seats are considered ‘Likely Republican’
- 1 seat is considered ‘Likely Democrat’
- 3 seats are considered ‘Lean Republican
- 5 seats are considered ‘Lean Democrat’
- 20 seats are considered ‘Toss Up’
Among the 20 Toss Up seats, 16 are held by Democrats- including 10 open seats- and 4 are held by Republicans, all featuring the incumbent.
I totally agree with the tossup call on bondurant and horan. His speakership race is very premature.
I don’t think the Bondurant race is a toss up at all. I’ve been over to Grenada very recently and things seem to be very favorable towards Bondurant’s re-election. Both camps have also done some recent independent polling at the end of September, and the polls have Bondurant ahead by as much as 20 points. I think both camps would confirm this, although one may be more reluctant than the other to admit it. I am sure Horan is a nice guy, but running because you didn’t get a pay raise usually won’t get you elected. I think this race can be chalked up in the R column and Bondurant is a major player in the Speaker’s race.
Putus vadum increbresco ut victor!
Of the 20 tossup races with 99% of these being greater than 40% BVAP I’m sure that the readers of this blog will suggest that all 20 will go Repub. I dont see that happening but after reading the comment on the Bondurant-Horan race I may not be bullish enough to put a bet on a Horan victory. Thanks for the insight.
I am also hearing that Horan is likely to win. The BVAP, Horan’s ties to Yalobusha County, and the white good ole boys all favor him in the race. Additionally, the absentee votes in Grenada County will go heavily in Horan’s favor. In the primary 20-25 % of the vote was by absentee ballot. A lot of questionable things go on in Grenada County with the absentee votes, and Horan has the right help in getting those votes. What pay raise did Horan not get? I thought he was an attorney in private practice in Grenada.
Any insight on HD 20. Jimmy Puckett (D) is running for re-election in a rematch against Chris Brown (R).
Puckett won four years ago by a couple hundred votes & there was some last minute shennanigans