The Republican Strength In The Senate

The large stretch of land that runs south of I-20 and east of I-55 makes up for about 40 percent of the seats in the state Senate, and is one of the strongest Republican areas there is. It includes the Jackson suburbs, the Pine Belt, and the Coast.

Of the 20 seats in this territory, 16 are held by Republicans. These 16 seats account for 60 percent of the Republicans seats in the Senate. These numbers were helped by a couple party-switchers earlier this year, including Cindy Hyde-Smith and Ezell Lee. Neither will be back. Hyde-Smith is likely the next commissioner of agriculture and commerce and Sally Doty looks to keep SD 39 in Republican hands. Lee, however, lost his first Republican primary in August. With no Democratic opponent, Tony Smith will soon represent SD 47.

If I was in to placing bets, I’d say that the next time Smith runs in SD 47 it will look a lot different. The current shape of this district is simply horrendous. The west side of the district extends up to Poplarville and down to Picayune on I-59. As it stretches north and south, it goes up to Wiggins, down to I-10, through Saucier, reaches into Jackson county, and runs about a mile wide as it crosses I-10 (again) before hitting Pascagoula. The district touches nine other districts (10 if you want to include SD 51 twice since it touches it on the east and west) so that should tell you something. Here is a look at the district in case you’ve never seen it. It was designed for a Democrat, but it looks like Republicans are in strong control of it.

We saw a couple other primary upsets in this region in August. Angela Hill defeated incumbent Sid Albritton in SD 40 and Brice Wiggins unseated Tommy Moffatt in SD 52. Both of these winners are also uncontested in November.

One point of caution is that we’ll have to keep an eye on the Pine Belt once redistricting talks come back around. Terry Burton’s map created a majority-black district in this area, and it’d be tough to imagine a different scenario next year.

All totaled, here are the current Republican held seats in the region: SD 20, SD 30, SD 31, SD 33, SD 35, SD 39, SD 40, SD 41, SD 42, SD 44, SD 45, SD 47, SD 49, SD 50, SD 51, SD 52.

Democrats hold just four seats here: SD 34, 43, 46, and 48. Three of these four may change parties this fall. In SD 34, Haskins Montgomery is running for a second term and is matched with Republican Gary Blakeney. Montgomery has a fairly conservative record and this district isn’t exactly fertile ground for Republicans, so look for him to be back.

We have talked about the other three districts extensively. SD 43 and SD 46 are both open seats. SD 43 should be good territory for Republicans, but this district has shown little interest in the GOP in the past. Will 2011 be different? Philip Gandy hopes so. And then on the Coast, Republicans are looking to return SD 46 to conservative hands after four years of David Baria. Philip Moran looks strong here.

And then there’s SD 48- it’s a fairly Democratic district but Deborah Dawkins has been re-elected with relatively low numbers in the past. Still, she has won nonetheless. Ashley Skellie is hoping to improve on the 47 percent she received in 2007 and tip the scales in the Republicans favor.

In a best case scenario, you’re looking at Republicans controlling 19 of 20 seats in this region, which at the same time would almost assure the party that they will maintain their majority in Jackson in the upper chamber.