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The Playbook For Tuesday Night

November 4, 2011

As we approach the final weekend before Election Day, and whether you are a frequent visitor or new to this site wanting to get some info, here are the basics on what to look out for in the lead up to Tuesday.

Statewide races: Currently Republicans hold seven of the eight statewide offices with Jim Hood, the attorney general, remaining as the last Democrat elected statewide. While we will have several new office holders, I don’t expect the party to change in any office.

There are also six regional offices on the ballot. This includes the northern, central, and southern district races for public service commissioner and transportation commissioner. Currently, Republicans have a 2-1 advantage on both commissions. The one where I would expect a Republican pickup is the southern district transportation commissioner’s race. I’ll also be paying attention to that race in the central district as well as the northern district PSC election.

View the statewide candidates here.

More: What is the Democratic floor and ceiling?

State Senate: Despite the possibility of a Democratic takeover here little has been said about this chamber. That is because Tate Reeves will be elected lieutenant governor and control the chamber so Republicans should have a working majority regardless. Remember, Democrats had a 28-24 numerical advantage after Phil Bryant was elected.

Right now Republicans have a 27-24 (one vacancy) advantage. While several seats may change, at the end of the day I don’t see either party netting more than 2 seats.

Democratic held seats to follow: SD 4, SD 8 (regular plus special election to fill vacancy), SD 37, SD 43, SD 46, and SD 48.

Republican held seats to watch: SD 10, SD 14, SD 18, SD 22, and SD 39.

I looked at many of these races in mid-October (here and here).

State House: This is what we’re really paying attention to. Currently Democrats have a 68-54 advantage (was 75-47 following the last election). Republicans need eight seats to get to the magic number of 62 needed for a majority. Can they do it? I can see Republicans picking up anywhere from 3 to 9 seats so that is basically me ducking the issue. These races are small, local, and we just can’t always get a feel on how they will turn out until the voters head to the polls. I expect to see a couple surprises.

One point of caution though, if the GOP does pick up some seats but falls short of 62, the selection of Speaker of the House will not be settled. In fact, the fun will just be beginning.

Democratic held seats we are following: HD 2 (open), HD 3 (open), HD 4 (open), HD 10 (open), HD 13 (open), HD 19, HD 20, HD 21, HD 25, HD 28 (open), HD 45, HD 79, HD 86, HD 91, HD 93, HD 105 (open), HD 107 (open), HD 111, HD 115, HD 121, and HD 122 (open).

And these seats held by Republicans: HD 1, HD 24, HD 43, HD 64, HD 73, and HD 83.

Here were ratings of all 122 districts that I released on September 29. Haven’t made any changes to it since, but use it to get a lay of the land.

Ballot initiatives: There are three initiatives that voters will decide upon as well, with many thinking this will drive turnout. And in most cases, there certainly appears to be more interest there than with the statewide races.

To see the language that will appear on the ballot for each of the initiatives, click here.

Two of the initiatives have a base of opposition, including the governor on eminent domain, but nothing has formalized. At the end of the day, voter ID and eminent domain will easily pass. The third initiative, the Personhood amendment, has seen the strongest and most formalized opposition. Because of this I don’t think it will pass as easily as a traditional pro-life initiative or at the level I thought it once would, but believe it will get the OK from voters.

Grades, endorsements, recommendations: Below is information released on legislative (and some statewide) candidates from various groups.

- NRA
Mississippi Right to Life
National Federation of Independent Business
BIPEC
Mississippi Tea Party

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4 Comments leave one →
  1. Coast Rat 4ever permalink
    November 7, 2011 8:04 am

    The “Playbook for Tuesday Night” will depend much on voter turnout. If we (R’s) are apathetic and have a low turnout then we may very well wake up Wednesday with a D as our next governor. If we have a strong turnout then Phil should win handily with 55% plus. We cannot take this election for granted or we risk a repeat of 1999 when a relatively low voter turnout saw Musgrove edge out Mike Parker (House of Reps chose Ronnie because no candidate had a majority). As a “coast rat” it frustrates me that the coastal counties historically see very low turnout (29% in the primaries) it is no wonder it is so difficult for us to elect a coastal candidate to a statewide office.

    Regardless of turnout I’m afraid Hood will be reelected. Simpson’s campaign just hasn’t caught fire and he has given Hood ammo to shoot at him with. I haven’t seen the latest fundraising reports but last time I checked Hood was way out front of Simpson. Especially with the very large contributions made by the Dem Atty Gens Assn (aka Trial Lawyers Assn).

    So R’s tomorrow is D-Day. Get out and vote!

  2. jarod permalink
    November 7, 2011 10:46 am

    Brett, you ought to write up on the public policy poll out showing the repubs up on everything except jim hood.

  3. pat permalink
    November 7, 2011 12:30 pm

    Thank you and yes, we ALL should get the word out about ‘working’ to defeat Democrat Hood. Does it not look really stupid for Conservative Republicans, Tea Party Members and Conservative Independents to cast votes for every Conservative Republican Candidate and “then” even think about crossing over in the AG’s race??

    The ‘cross over vote’ of Republicans is what gave Democrat Hood crowing power in the 2008 election. Please let us not make the same mistake again.

    Conservatives and/or Republicans have an opportunity to elect a Conservative Republican Attorney General who “will work with” our conservative Republican Gov…and other elected Republicans and not fight against them.

    Further more, Mississippi has an opportunity to elect her first Conservative Republican Attorney General!

    And just what good will it do to have ALL these elected Conservative Republicans…., but yet have a liberal Demo as our state’s attorney? What message will electing a Democrat as AG in Mississippi continue to send to Washington?

    It is past time for ALL who call themselves Conservative and/or Republican to stand up for our candidate….Steve Simpson! Steve Simpson needs our support, regardless of the distorted, negative ads on TV and mail-outs sent to DeSoto, Madison and Rankin Counties, and we Mississippians need his leadership!

    Look ‘under the hood’…..www.jimshood.com…..amazing, simply amazing.

  4. jarod permalink
    November 7, 2011 9:41 pm

    Our very own Brett Kittredge will be on Paul Gallo’s super talk radio show at 7:05 AM. I know I’ll be tuned in!

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