Bryant Has Big Lead In Guv’s Race
According to new polling, Phil Bryant is in very good position to win a first term tomorrow. The lieutenant governor has a 54-40 lead over Johnny DuPree with just six percent undecided. In what is probably a sign of the polite campaign, both the Republican and Democrat have positive favorability ratings. Bryant is at +29, while DuPree is at +19.
As we have seen with most polling in Mississippi, there is a slight gender gap with men supporting Republicans and conservative causes in greater numbers than women. Women still favor those candidates or issues, just not as strongly. For example, Bryant leads by 18 among men and 11 among women.
DuPree’s strength is where you would imagine, among blacks and the younger crowd. He leads by 4 among 18-29 and 5 among 30-45 (that is somewhat surprising) age brackets. Among voters 65 and older though, Bryant is up by 47. DuPree has a +61 favorability among blacks, and leads Bryant 80-11 among the demo. But Bryant is up 54 among the white vote. This isn’t too far from numbers we see in presidential elections in Mississippi, and when the Democrat isn’t getting more than 20 percent among whites they aren’t going to win statewide.
Here’s something that may or may not surprise you. Jim Hood actually pulls in more of the black vote than DuPree. In polling on the AGs race, Hood leads 52-39, including 86-6 among blacks. But the reason Hood wins? He’s at 37 percent among white voters, losing by just 17 points to Steve Simpson in that demo. Democrats are also much more unified in this race. Hood is +83 among Democrats while Simpson is just +40 among Republicans. Hood also wins across all age brackets, including 65 and older.
Lynn Fitch has a big lead in the treasurer’s race, 54-35 over Democrat Connie Moran. Also looking good is Haley Barbour as he ends his final term. His 60 percent approval rating is among the highest in the nation polled by Public Policy Polling.
Among the three initiatives, voter ID is the most popular. Voters support it by a 64-29 margin, including support from 32 percent of Democrats and 32 percent of blacks. Eminent domain also looks to be in good shape with passage up 51-39. Its strongest disapproval is among blacks and Democrats. And opponents have obviously done a very good job in defining the Personhood amendment. Right now its leading 45-44, a virtual dead heat.