Republicans Lead In Generic Ballot

Public Policy Polling, a Democratic firm who has spent some time polling the state earlier this year, is out with a new set of results in the lead up to tomorrow’s vote. Basically, there weren’t a lot of surprises if you have been following the races to this point.

Here was the key takeaway from what we have been paying the greatest amount of attention to: “With Democrats holding a narrow majority right now in the House of Representatives these numbers suggest that the GOP could gain control on Tuesday.” On the generic legislative ballot, Republicans are up 49-38. If the GOP wins by 10, they likely win the House.

As people try to predict what will happen tomorrow night, this polling is certainly good news for Republicans. But, it can be difficult to translate what this means at a local level plus Republican districts are generally overpopulated. That said, +10 is a very good place to be.

Here are how the crosstabs are looking on the generic ballot: Republicans are +6 with women and +19 with men; Republicans lead the white vote 68-18 and Democrats lead the black vote 79-10; Republicans are +30 with those over 65 and win all age brackets but those 18-29; Republicans support the GOP candidate 86-6, while Democrats support the Dem 84-7, and Independents are +16 for the GOP but 40 percent are undecided; Democrats are +35 with moderates.

What I’d look for is not just how the independent vote ends up, which +16 is very good, but how unified Republicans remain. Vote splitting has been the problem for Republicans in legislative races, so this would be a good sign.

Other numbers to consider: The party ID breakdown in the polling was 47 percent Republican vs. 39 percent Democrat. Those who described themselves as somewhat or very conservative made up 57 percent of the polling, compared to 22 percent who were very or somewhat liberal. Those over 65 were a quarter of the breakdown, while those 18-29 made up 16 percent.

All in all, these numbers show a slightly more Republican crowd from what turned out in 2008, which is obviously good for the GOP and consistent with nationwide exit polling from 2010.