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The 2010 Congressional Elections List

January 25, 2010

With Mississippi’s four Congressmen up for re-election, I have decided to create this ongoing list to look at the candidates, the challengers, and the chance of an upset. I will be updating these regularly as people enter or exit the race. I have decide to make this a post, but will also move it to the Resources section on the right side of the blog so you can easily find it.

In each list, incumbents are listed first. That is followed by challengers, both official and rumored, and the percentage chance that they run (in parenthesis). I also included 2008 election data, the district’s partisan voting index, and the current rating.

And finally, if you have any updates or notice anything that is wrong, please don’t hesitate to contact me.

MS-01: In 2008, Rep. Childers defeated Southaven Mayor Greg Davis 54-44. The current Cook PVI is R+14.

Travis Childers (D), incumbent (100)
Alan Nunnelee (R), state Senator (100)
Henry Ross (R), former Eupora mayor and senior counsel in the Justice Department under George W. Bush (100)
Angela McGlowan (R), FoxNews analyst and conservative author (100)
Ed Holliday (R), dentist and Tea Party activist (49)

We rate this race as Toss-Up.

MS-02: In 2008, Thompson defeated Richard Cook 69-31. The current cook PVI is D+12.

Bennie Thompson (D), incumbent (100)
Bill Marcy (R), former candidate for MS-03 and state legislature (100)
Richard Cook (R), GOP nominee for MS-02 in 2008 (75)

We rate this race as Safe Democrat.

MS-03: In 2008, Gregg Harper defeated Joel Gill 63-36. The current PVI is R+15.

Gregg Harper (R), incumbent (100)
Joel Gill (D), Democratic nominee for MS-03 in 2008 (100)

We rate this race as Safe Republican.

MS-04: In 2008, Gene Taylor defeated John McCay 75-24. The current PVI is R+20.

Gene Taylor (D), incumbent (100)
Joe Tegerdine (R), businessman (100)
Steven Palazzo (R), state Representative (100)
John McCay (R), GOP nominee for MS-04 in 2008 (49)
Chris McDaniel (R), state Senator (0)
Michael Watson (R), state Senator (0)

We rate this race as a Safe Democrat.

Come back often for updates.

15 Comments leave one →
  1. Mississippi Lady permalink
    January 26, 2010 9:17 am

    Thank you for posting the list for a one stop look. It is interesting. Please explain what the following mean:
    1.”district’s partisan voting index-DPV” is
    2. the “current rating”

    Thanks Brett.

    • January 26, 2010 9:29 am

      Here is some info on what the Cook PVI is-

      It basically says how Republican or Democratic as district is compared to the nation as a whole.

      Several national groups rate Congressional and Senate elections based on the how they see the election going. Safe R or Safe D means the seat will almost end up in that party’s hands. Lean R or Lean D means one party has a slight, but clear advantage. Toss Up means the race could go either way.

      These are actually my ratings, but pretty much in line with the national groups such as Rothenberg, CQ Politics, Cook, Sabato Cyrtsal Ball.

      • Mississippi Lady permalink
        January 26, 2010 3:46 pm

        Thanks Brett

        Thumbs Up!

  2. Charlotte permalink
    January 26, 2010 12:52 pm

    Good listing Bret. Keep it going. Good information for all.

  3. Matt permalink
    January 26, 2010 3:06 pm

    I think it’s interesting to watch what’s going on with other Blue Dog Dems in the South in comparison to where Gene Taylor finds himself.

    Marion Berry in Arkansas just announced he is retiring, Reps. Gordon and Tanner in Tennessee are retiring too, Parker Griffith became a Republican to try to keep his seat. Plus people like Blanche Lincoln are in trouble.

    Add to all of this the fact that in the current national political climate, Republicans are winning in places like New Jersey and Massachusetts.

    All of this is to say I think there should be more national ink on the enviable position that Gene Taylor finds himself in–that even in a R +20 district, he is safe for re-election. It would be interesting to see some sort of major New York Times or Politico type profile of Gene Taylor and South Mississippi–and how with all the troubles for Blue Dog Democrats, and the fact that Republicans are even winning in blue states, a Democrat is able to be safe for re-election in a GOP district in a red state.

  4. Mississippi Lady permalink
    January 26, 2010 3:44 pm

    Yeh I bet all those crystal balls clouded over when Brown was elected. LOL

    South Mississippi is very conservative and will no longer support a career politician (Taylor) that supports Nancy Pelosi. She fights for All the things We in Mississippi dislike.

    Gub Control
    Abortion funded by tax dollars
    Cap and Trade
    Bail outs
    Health Care take over
    Open Boarders

    Tegerdine may not have the name recognition YET but he has a strong rising support and momentum. I am quite glad to see Palazzo not running for this office at this time for he would be entering so late, like an after thought. Even though I like Palzzo and McCay I seek someone who is committed from day one. I am supporting Joe Tegerdine a real conservative who respects our constitution and will fight for Mississippi and America. We need new leadership.

  5. B.J. permalink
    January 26, 2010 10:49 pm

    Steven Palazzo is a dedicated family man who enjoys spending time with his family. He has three young children and enjoys being involved in their life. He actively coaches his sons in baseball and football, his daughter is involved in dance. Representative Palazzo told me at a cancer benefit that we were both in attendance at that the reason he can’t run right now is that he doesn’t want to miss out on being a part of the formative years of his children’s lives. Give him some time he is a young man with the conservative values that resonate with the people in District 4. He is a Gulf War Veteran, Fiscal Conservative, Pro-Life, and aggressively guards his fellow Mississippians from tax increases. Who knows maybe he has political aspiration that don’t include Washington D.C.. Whom better to be the State Auditor than a man with a Master’s Degree in Accounting and a background in Auditing? Who knows Steven’s future the possibilities are limitless, right now I think he just enjoys being a family man and serving his district?

    • ServeFirst permalink
      February 9, 2010 9:15 pm

      Palazzo changed his mind or misled you, he announced this morning on the Paul Gallo show. He is in session and is a tax accountant… not sure when he is going to find time to campaign. He has an uphill battle against Tegerdine’s grassroots and popularity with the Tea Party crowd.

      • R. L. permalink
        February 9, 2010 10:38 pm

        He didn’t change his mind.

        His mind was changed for him. His hand was forced. He had no choice.

        • Jeff permalink
          February 9, 2010 11:16 pm

          RL I have read and/or heard that a few times. “He was forced” please explain.

  6. SOMISS permalink
    January 26, 2010 11:48 pm


  7. Support the Vote permalink
    January 28, 2010 9:00 am

    Can you tell us, has Gene Taylor officially registered or submitted the signed forms to run in this congressional election?

  8. Jeff permalink
    February 2, 2010 2:19 am

    Looks like Richard Cook (R) is going to put his name on the ballot in cd2 again. I wish someone would really test those waters with a legit campaign. A populist/moderate R with the right background could be competitive there; possibly even a consevative if the delivery was just right. Thompson’s negatives are higher now. It would be fun to watch. Kim Wade are you listening?

  9. February 11, 2010 10:50 pm

    I have changed up the information on Palazzo. I moved him from italic (rumored) to bold (announced), but only moved the % up to 75. I would like to see something else from Palazzo indicating that he is running- there have been no news stories, press releases, info on his campaign website, etc. Just being conservative.

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