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Key Findings From Nunnelee/ Childers Poll

June 15, 2010
tags: 2010 House, Alan Nunnelee, MS-01, polling, Travis Childers
by Brett

The Alan Nunnelee camp was obviously very excited about the poll results, and sent out a blast email with some inside details on the poll.

First, here is the statement from Nunnelee on the poll giving him a 50-42 edge over Rep. Travis Childers: “We believe this is proof that our message of job creation, limited government spending and fiscal responsibility is connecting with the citizens of the 1st Congressional District. People are frustrated with the way Washington is operating and they are looking for a Congressman who will represent their conservative Mississippi values and hold Obama and Nancy Pelosi accountable.”

And here are the key findings from the poll (as noted by the Nunnelee campaign):

- Incumbent Democrat Member of Congress Travis Childers is extremely vulnerable and very much in danger of being defeated in 2010. Just over one-third of voters (35%) believe that he has done a good enough job to deserve re-election and half of voters in the district (50%) have already decided that it is time for a new person.

- On a trial ballot test, Republican challenger Alan Nunnelee leads Childers by +8 points. Fifty percent (50%) indicate that they would vote for Nunnelee and forty-two percent (42%) indicate they would vote for Childers. There are eight percent (8%) of voters who are undecided on this ballot test. This represents a reversal from March data, where Childers led by +9 points.

- The primary appears to have benefitted the campaign enormously. Nunnelee’s favorable ratings (44%) are now just five points lower than the incumbent’s (49%), but his unfavorable ratings (8%) remain significantly below Childers’ (30%). Childers, with a favorable-to-unfavorable ratio of just 1.6 : 1.0, falls well below the ratio generally considered healthy for incumbents.

- Nunnelee’s advantage on the ballot is strengthened by voters who know both him and Childers. Among those voters who have heard of both candidates (69% of the sample), Nunnelee leads Childers by +21 points. Vote intensity is also on the side of Nunnelee. Among voters who are “extremely” likely to vote in the November election (64% of the sample), Nunnelee leads by +18 points.

- The political environment among voters in this district heavily favors Nunnelee and the Republicans. On the generic ballot for Congress, Republicans maintain a significant +14 advantage. Fifty-four percent (54%) of district voters indicate that they would vote for the Republican candidate and only forty percent (40%) indicate they would vote for the generic Democrat candidate.

- Almost six in ten district voters, fifty-seven percent (57%), indicate that they disapprove of the job that President Obama is doing as President, and a majority (50%) strongly disapprove. Just over one-in-three voters (36%) approve of the president’s performance.

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