Tarrance Group Poll Gives Nunnelee Early Lead
The Alan Nunnelee camp has released campaign polling that Hotline got their hands on (h/t: Y’all Politics) showing the challenger with an eight point lead over Rep. Travis Childers. The poll was conducted by the Tarrance Group, a national Republican firm whose clients include Sen. Thad Cochran, Gov. Haley Barbour along with a whole host of other Republican political committees, Representatives, Senators, and governors.
The poll shows Nunnelee with 50 percent and Childers at 42. This is an eight point gain for Nunnelee since March, and Childers has dropped nine points during that time. Nunnelee currently boasts a 44/8 favorability rating meaning he got through the GOP primary relatively unscaved. When looking at those who were “extremely” likely to vote (64 percent of the sample), Nunnelee was up by 18.
The poll surveyed 303 likely voters between June 8-9 (a week after the primary) and had a margin of error of +/- 5.6 percent. The MOE means the numbers can be closer to a dead heat, but either way these numbers are very good news for any challenger at this point in the game especially when their name ID is about half that of the incumbent.
A while ago I noted that Childers has been doing his own internal polling. If his numbers show something different, it would be beneficial to the incumbent to contradict the latest and best polling out there to this point.
Also, be on the lookout for more attacks against Nunnelee from the DCCC, the Mississippi Democratic Party, and possibly the Childers campaign (whenever he formally starts campaigning). With a net favorability rating of 36 for Nunnelee, the Dems will need to do something to bring that back to life and simply talking pro-Childers will not do that.