Friday Ramblings with Robert
As we enter into July and are at the halfway mark of the year what better time to lay out some predictions for the second-half of the year. It is has been a slow week news wise and it is good to mix things up every now and then. Feel free to comment with any predictions you may have. Bear in mind these are merely my predictions and are not necessarily based on facts so please don’t take them too seriously.
Nunnelee Wins Easily Over Childers
I have been saying it for weeks now that I thought Nunnelee could win this race with Travis Childers with a united front behind him and I have even more confidence now. Alan Nunnelee will not only win this match-up, but it will not even really be that close. I am calling for a 9 point victory for Nunnelee over Childers. I think this district rights itself and turns back to being a Republican stronghold in November. Roger Wicker used to win this district by over 30 percentage points and Alan Nunnelee is a strong Republican candidate that can take this seat back. It will be harder to unseat an incumbent, but I think all the factors and the electorate souring on Moderate to Liberal governing will lead to an easy Nunnelee victory in November.
Confidence Level: 85%
Palazzo Loses A Close One
Gene Taylor for a change will actually have to run a good strong campaign to fight off the best challenge he has seen in years. Steven Palazzo will give him a run for his money, but unfortunately I think he will come up short in November. I’m going to go out on a limb and say its going to be in the 5-6 point range once the votes are in. Taylor is tough because he does actually buck his party often and is not really much of a player in Washington because of this. I really hope I am wrong on this and somehow Palazzo pulls off the upset in what is shaping up to be a good year for Republicans at the polls potentially.
Confidence level: 50%
Thompson & Harper Win
This one needs little explanation as both are entrenched in their districts, which are heavily populated with supporters of their respective parties. You will not see any surprises in November in either of their races as each will face heavy underdogs who will be underfunded and out-manned.
Confidence Level: 100%
Thad Cochran Decides To Retire
I honestly believe Thad would have hung it up at the end of his last term if he thought he could, but it was an unstable time for Republicans nationally and here at home we were already occupied with trying to hold on and save Trent Lott’s seat after his unexpected departure. This would be as good a time as any for him to step down and for Republicans to almost assuredly hold the seat. Thad has had a good long career and has always been good to Mississippi with the power seat he has held on the Appropriations Committee. He is getting up there in age as well and has seen some colleagues, especially Robert Byrd pass away while still in office and may want to actually enjoy retirement. It is pretty far-fetched, but you never know.
Confidence Level: 10%
I hope everyone has a happy 4th of July and gets to celebrate our nations independence with those you hold dear. Have a great weekend!