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Friday Ramblings with Robert

July 2, 2010
tags: 2010 House, Alan Nunnelee, Bennie Thompson, Gene Taylor, Gregg Harper, MS-01, MS-02, MS-03, MS-04, Steven Palazzo, Thad Cochran, Travis Childers
by Robert

As we enter into July and are at the halfway mark of the year what better time to lay out some predictions for the second-half of the year.  It is has been a slow week news wise and it is good to mix things up every now and then.  Feel free to comment with any predictions you may have.  Bear in mind these are merely my predictions and are not necessarily based on facts so please don’t take them too seriously.

Nunnelee Wins Easily Over Childers

I have been saying it for weeks now that I thought Nunnelee could win this race with Travis Childers with a united front behind him and I have even more confidence now.  Alan Nunnelee will not only win this match-up, but it will not even really be that close.  I am calling for a 9 point victory for Nunnelee over Childers.  I think this district rights itself and turns back to being a Republican stronghold in November.  Roger Wicker used to win this district by over 30 percentage points and Alan Nunnelee is a strong Republican candidate that can take this seat back.  It will be harder to unseat an incumbent, but I think all the factors and the electorate souring on Moderate to Liberal governing will lead to an easy Nunnelee victory in November.

Confidence Level: 85%

Palazzo Loses A Close One

Gene Taylor for a change will actually have to run a good strong campaign to fight off the best challenge he has seen in years.  Steven Palazzo will give him a run for his money, but unfortunately I think he will come up short in November.  I’m going to go out on a limb and say its going to be in the 5-6 point range once the votes are in.  Taylor is tough because he does actually buck his party often and is not really much of a player in Washington because of this.  I really hope I am wrong on this and somehow Palazzo pulls off the upset in what is shaping up to be a good year for Republicans at the polls potentially.

Confidence level: 50%

Thompson & Harper Win

This one needs little explanation as both are entrenched in their districts, which are heavily populated with supporters of their respective parties.  You will not see any surprises in November in either of their races as each will face heavy underdogs who will be underfunded and out-manned.

Confidence Level: 100%

Thad Cochran Decides To Retire

I honestly believe Thad would have hung it up at the end of his last term if he thought he could, but it was an unstable time for Republicans nationally and here at home we were already occupied with trying to hold on and save Trent Lott’s seat after his unexpected departure.  This would be as good a time as any for him to step down and for Republicans to almost assuredly hold the seat.  Thad has had a good long career and has always been good to Mississippi with the power seat he has held on the Appropriations Committee.  He is getting up there in age as well and has seen some colleagues, especially Robert Byrd pass away while still in office and may want to actually enjoy retirement.  It is pretty far-fetched, but you never know.

Confidence Level: 10%

I hope everyone has a happy 4th of July and gets to celebrate our nations independence with those you hold dear.  Have a great weekend!

3 Comments leave one →
  1. sippydog permalink
    July 2, 2010 1:43 pm

    I don’t often comment, but I love the horserace so I want to get in on the action. I agree with you, but with a few differences. Both Nunnelee and Taylor will win, but I think you have the numbers flipped.

    Nunnelee will win in a close one. I don’t think it is easy to discount Childers connection to clerks throughout the state, and he is already making a right turn. That will make him a more solid candidate in MS01 by November. Nunnelee is stuck with repeating that Childers voted for Nancy Pelosi, while Childers can point to the NRA endorsement. Average voters aren’t going to remember in November, or maybe haven’t heard at all, about the NRA’s Disclose Act shenanigans. It’s both too chancy and too difficult to try to discount the NRA endorsement of Childers without looking foolishI say Nunnelee in a nail-biter.

    Taylor will win in a 9-10 pointer on the coast. The oil spill has given him an incredible opportunity to leave Palazzo in the dust, and I’m willing to bet polling on the coast will have his numbers significantly higher in the coming weeks as a result. He is not only on the ground, but running a great deal of the show down there now. Whether you like his politics or not, Taylor is a straight shooter. His constituents know it, and will get even more of a chance to see it over the coming months leading up to the election.

    I agree totally on all other points. I think Thad has been an incredible asset, but he has stuck his foot in his mouth a few times in the past couple of years playing the statesman. The voters that are driving the current elections in Mississippi are in no mood for a go-along, get-along Senator. They want someone to shout from the rooftops, and to hell with statesmanship. That anger may get a little quieter after the Republican wins in November, but the Senate election will still be about Obama, and he is a lighting rod for the angry conservative voters. Thad has seemed a bit aloof at times lately, and I think his age has caught up to him. He doesn’t seem as sharp as he used to. He’ll ride off into the sunset with the thanks of a grateful state and nation.

    It will be interesting to see the maneuvering for that Senate seat.

    My two-cents.

  2. princess sophia permalink
    July 3, 2010 1:58 pm

    I agree with sippydog.

  3. KingMaker permalink
    July 5, 2010 11:37 am

    sippy dog

    Taylor is not a straight shooter, but you are obviously not from Dist. 4 or you would know this.

    Taylor plays one set of cards at home and one set in Washington, people are seeing through that. Palazzo is just not strong enough of a candidate and doesn’t have the fortitude to take Taylor head on – on real issues.

    Neither of them care about anything North of I-10 so I don’t see the Pine Belt getting out to support Palazzo like they could.

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