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MS-04 Closer Than Previously Believed?

September 24, 2010
tags: polling, Gene Taylor, Travis Childers, Alan Nunnelee, 2010 House, MS-01, Nancy Pelosi, MS-04, Steven Palazzo, MS-02
by Brett

I mentioned earlier today that the NRCC is doing some exploratory polling to see just how vulnerable Rep. Gene Taylor is, and Politico had a follow up piece with this message: Taylor is indeed vulnerable.

Joel Dunagin, campaign spokesman for Taylor, said this: “It’s going to be a tighter race than before, and that’s just because of the mood of the country. We’re not running scared. We’re running hard- and in six weeks it will all be worth it.”

I know the Palazzo group is feeling very good, and believes that momentum is on their side.

Travis Childers’ latest ad. The Travis Childers camp is up with another television spot:

A Nunnelee official said this is an e-mail: “So Nunnelee has been on the state plane? Is this all they have?”

After running a positive spot for their first ad, the latest three productions from the Childers camp have all gone negative (and I should add it was about two days in between that first ad and when they went negative).

Explaining the racial breakdown in MS-02. I received this email from John Couvillon with JMC Enterprises (the group who conducted the MS-02 poll showing the Thompson/ Marcy race a statistical dead-heat) who gave this added explanation for why they believe the racial split will be right at 50/50:

“One point I do wish to make which wasn’t explicitly mentioned in your blog: everyone (you, RealClearPolitics, National Review Online, etc) IS focusing on the 60+ black % of the CENSUS population. I have not seen anything mentioned about the black % of the REGISTERED VOTER population. The best available information I have says that number is 54%. And when you look at those races that, in my judgment, allows me to determine a “likely voter”, the 54% number drops to 50%. Thus, I believed it was appropriate to use 50% as the basis for properly weighting the top line numbers in the survey.”

From the Fire Pelosi bus tour. The RNC’s ‘Fire Pelosi’ bus tour made a stop in Desoto county on Thursday and one of our reader got this picture and reported that about 250 people attended.

Odds and ends. **Alan Nunnelee gave a thumbs up to the House GOP’s ‘Pledge to America’ in a press release today. ***In a Congressional e-mail, Travis Childers talked about the economy, which he said, is improving, but there is more to do. He lists four bills that he supported with the intention of jump-starting the economy. The stimulus bill is not on that list. ****When Gene Taylor became the first Democrat to support repeal of the new healthcare legislation, he opened up the door to question why other Democrats who say they oppose the legislation aren’t take similar steps. This article in The Hill looks at how Republican candidates are pressing their Democratic opponents for not taking a similar approach as Taylor.

2 Comments leave one →
  1. TheSilenceIsConsent permalink
    September 24, 2010 8:14 pm

    Absolutely, Taylor is vulnerable and if the RNCC writes off the 4th district of Mississippi they are stupid.

  2. Political Junkie permalink
    September 25, 2010 8:54 am

    I especially like how defensive they are when referring to taxpayers paying for a plane for Nunnelee, as though it is expected. Shameful.

    Looks like the Nunnelee campaign has forgotten how irresponsible he has been, ie voting record.

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