Memo From Palazzo Polling
Earlier today we obtained this memo regarding Tarrance Group polling of the Fourth District. You can check it out in PDF format below (if you are reading in RSS or via e-mail, you will likely have to click through to access it).
But here is the key information: The poll puts Gene Taylor up 45-41 over Steven Palazzo (within the 5.8 percent margin of error). The key takeaway on this from my vantage point is that a 20-year incumbent is under 50 percent in this poll. It’s fair to say that just about everyone who will be voting knows who Taylor is. The fact that he is under the 50 percent marker is telling.
The other information is consistent with what we have seen in the First, and throughout the country. Barack Obama is not popular (64 percent disapprove), the GOP leads the generic ballot (54-35), and enthusiasm is on the side of the Republican.
For 20 years this has been a Republican district voting for a Democrat. Will this be the year that the Republicans who put Taylor in office every two years support the Republican candidate?