All Major Handicappers Have Moved MS-04
The three traditional political handicappers, in addition to FiveThirtyEight.com, have all moved MS-04 into the GOP’s direction over the past few weeks. A couple weeks ago, Cook Political Report moved the race into the Leans Democratic category, which is between Toss Up and Likely Democratic. Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball has the race pegged at Likely Democratic, while the Rothenberg Political Report has it at Lean Democratic.
And FiveThirtyEight statistician Nate Silver has now moved the race into the even chance of takeover category giving Steven Palazzo a 41 percent chance of winning. This equals a 49.8-47.7 victory for Gene Taylor at this point.
NRCC’s first ad in MS-04 (ever?). Here is the first spot from the NRCC in the Fourth District as they begin their media buy in this fast moving district. The central theme of the ad? Nancy Pelosi.
Here is a comment from the NRCC: “After 21 years in Washington, Gene Taylor has lost touch with South Mississippi. He was sent to Congress to represent conservative values, but his support for the Obama-Pelosi agenda is hitting families where it hurts. By supporting higher taxes and a reckless budget, Taylor is forcing South Mississippi taxpayers to hand over more of their hard-earned money to the federal government during these tough times. It’s time for new leadership in Washington, and that starts with replacing Gene Taylor.”
Latest on healthcare lawsuits. A couple stories related to lawsuits targeting the new federal healthcare legislation- both on an individual basis as well as the major multi-state suit.
First, it looks like a ruling on a lawsuit brought forth by state Sen. Chris McDaniel (R-Ellisville) and others on behalf of citizens who do not want to be required to purchase health insurance will be coming fairly soon.
And last week a judge in Florida refused to dismiss a lawsuit brought forth by several states challenging the legality behind the new law. Haley Barbour, who entered into the suit on behalf of the state, praised the decision saying: “I am pleased the judge has allowed our challenge to the individual mandate contained in the Obamacare bill to go forward.”
Courting the Tea Party. Whether the 2011 Republican gubernatorial primary turns into an ‘insider-vs-outsider’ race remains to be seen, but it is clear that Lt. Gov. Phil Bryant is doing all he can to court many of the Tea Party activists who have decried career politicians. Here is an article from over the weekend recapping a meeting between Bryant and Tea Party leaders.
2010 odds and ends. ** In MS-01, the Daily Journal has a lengthy article taking a look at the background of both Alan Nunnelee and Travis Childers, as well as their stances on the major issues. *** In MS-02, Republican candidate Bill Marcy won the backing of retiring Rep. John Linder (R-GA). Linder has been a champion of the Fair Tax for years, and cited Marcy’s support for the legislation in his endorsement. **** Marcy’s internal polling showing his race with Bennie Thompson as a dead-heat was mentioned among a dozen or so other polls in which longtime Democratic incumbents from liberal districts appear in trouble. Nate Silver took a look at these polls here. ***** The headline says it all from Politico: The Democrats’ brutal weekend.