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All Major Handicappers Have Moved MS-04

October 18, 2010
tags: Haley Barbour, Gene Taylor, Phil Bryant, 2010 House, MS-01, 2011 Governor, Bill Marcy, Chris McDaniel, healthcare, MS-04, NRCC, Steven Palazzo, MS-02, John Linder
by Brett

The three traditional political handicappers, in addition to, have all moved MS-04 into the GOP’s direction over the past few weeks. A couple weeks ago, Cook Political Report moved the race into the Leans Democratic category, which is between Toss Up and Likely Democratic. Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball has the race pegged at Likely Democratic, while the Rothenberg Political Report has it at Lean Democratic.

And FiveThirtyEight statistician Nate Silver has now moved the race into the even chance of takeover category giving Steven Palazzo a 41 percent chance of winning. This equals a 49.8-47.7 victory for Gene Taylor at this point.

NRCC’s first ad in MS-04 (ever?). Here is the first spot from the NRCC in the Fourth District as they begin their media buy in this fast moving district. The central theme of the ad? Nancy Pelosi.

Here is a comment from the NRCC: “After 21 years in Washington, Gene Taylor has lost touch with South Mississippi. He was sent to Congress to represent conservative values, but his support for the Obama-Pelosi agenda is hitting families where it hurts. By supporting higher taxes and a reckless budget, Taylor is forcing South Mississippi taxpayers to hand over more of their hard-earned money to the federal government during these tough times. It’s time for new leadership in Washington, and that starts with replacing Gene Taylor.”

Latest on healthcare lawsuits. A couple stories related to lawsuits targeting the new federal healthcare legislation- both on an individual basis as well as the major multi-state suit.

First, it looks like a ruling on a lawsuit brought forth by state Sen. Chris McDaniel (R-Ellisville) and others on behalf of citizens who do not want to be required to purchase health insurance will be coming fairly soon.

And last week a judge in Florida refused to dismiss a lawsuit brought forth by several states challenging the legality behind the new law. Haley Barbour, who entered into the suit on behalf of the state, praised the decision saying: “I am pleased the judge has allowed our challenge to the individual mandate contained in the Obamacare bill to go forward.”

Courting the Tea Party. Whether the 2011 Republican gubernatorial primary turns into an ‘insider-vs-outsider’ race remains to be seen, but it is clear that Lt. Gov. Phil Bryant is doing all he can to court many of the Tea Party activists who have decried career politicians. Here is an article from over the weekend recapping a meeting between Bryant and Tea Party leaders.

2010 odds and ends. ** In MS-01, the Daily Journal has a lengthy article taking a look at the background of both Alan Nunnelee and Travis Childers, as well as their stances on the major issues. *** In MS-02, Republican candidate Bill Marcy won the backing of retiring Rep. John Linder (R-GA). Linder has been a champion of the Fair Tax for years, and cited Marcy’s support for the legislation in his endorsement. **** Marcy’s internal polling showing his race with Bennie Thompson as a dead-heat was mentioned among a dozen or so other polls in which longtime Democratic incumbents from liberal districts appear in trouble. Nate Silver took a look at these polls here. ***** The headline says it all from Politico: The Democrats’ brutal weekend.

6 Comments leave one →
  1. catty permalink
    October 18, 2010 10:29 am

    Its like the political analyst say:Taylor was in trouble from the very beginning….he has never had 50 per cent or more voter approval going into this race, which means most of the voters have already made up their mind not to vote for him. However, there has been a definite, viable and very visible surge toward Palazzo in the past three weeks. Drive anywhere north of I-10 and you only see Palazzo signs and lots of them. Taylor’s Town Hall meetings he held last Spring and Summer did him more harm than good as his true arrogant nature dominated all else. And how stupid of him to be against restoring all of the Bush Tax Cuts….that just means he lost all support from small business, etc. Even if he manages to squeak by and wins this term it is sure to be his last.

  2. Princess Sophia permalink
    October 18, 2010 4:49 pm

    Finally starting to sink in?

  3. Dontreadonme permalink
    October 18, 2010 8:03 pm

    The KEY is voter turnout.

  4. catty permalink
    October 19, 2010 3:23 pm

    Doubtful, very doubtful, that fired- up Conservatives will be dismayed by apathy, hurricane, hell or high water.

  5. Capt Warren permalink
    October 19, 2010 9:37 pm

    Gene has no one to blame but Gene. Those who have attended his Townhalls in the last year or so have seen a Representative who thinks he OWNS the seat and we the little people need to shut and listen to what Lord Gene has decided we need. He has exhibited a level of arrogance that has turned many former supporters off. And he hopefully will be part of the unempolyment statistics for November.

  6. princess666sophia permalink
    October 20, 2010 6:00 pm
    I wonder if this guys related to Steven.

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