Friday Ramblings with Robert
Polls Not Kind To Dems This Week
This week we saw 2 new polls come out that focused on the races in MS01 and MS04 and neither were promising to the democratic incumbents. Both of the polls were close, but incumbents Taylor and Childers are polling at very low levels just days away from the election and that is a troubling sign for them. Momentum is key in political races and right now Gene Taylor and Travis Childers have created no momentum and seem to be stuck in neutral as both of their Republican challengers Steven Palazzo and Alan Nunnelee have the momentum in their corner this late in the game. I know some will question the validity of the poll in MS04 because it was conducted for the Palazzo campaign, but this same poll gave Taylor a lead not so long ago and we can see that the momentum has shifted and it would be unwise for Gene Taylor to ignore these numbers. The poll in MS01 was independently conducted and the numbers are in line with what I have been thinking and the fact that Alan Nunnelee is the clear front-runner in this race despite Travis Childers being the incumbent. A great deal could change in the next 10 days, but right now the Republicans have a chance to take 2 seats out of Democratic hands.
Inside My Mind: Congressional Predictions
As we inch closer to election day I am making one of my final sets of predictions. I have included where I was on 9/24 with these races and where I stand now. Once again keep in mind these are only my opinion.
MS-01 Travis Childers vs. Alan Nunnelee
(9/24) Nunnelee wins by 8 points (53-45-2).
(10/22) Nunnelee wins by 9 points (53-44-3). I still like Nunnelee here to win fairly easily. I just don’t think Childers is going to be able to motivate people to get out and vote.
MS-02 Bennie Thompson vs. Bill Marcy
(9/24) Thompson retains seat by 16 points (58-42).
(10/22) Thompson retains seat by 14 points (57-43). I would love nothing more than for Bill Marcy to knock off Bennie, but I’m just not sure enough people will stay away from the polls for that to happen. Marcy needs a low turnout district wide to pull the upset. I will be interested to see the results from this race because Marcy has a motivated base that will turn out for him, but Bennie has always been able to get his people out to vote for him.
MS-03 Gregg Harper vs. Joel Gill
(9/24) Harper retains seat by 40 points (70-30).
(10/22) Harper retains seat by 40 points (70-30). No movement here and I think Harper can get 70% in a year like this. By far the least intriguing Congressional race this year.
MS-04 Gene Taylor vs. Steven Palazzo
(9/24) Taylor retains seat by 11 points (55-44-1).
(10/22) Taylor retains seat by 1 point (50-49-1). I am not ready to call the upset just yet, but this race has seen the most movement lately in favor of the Republican. I think this one is gonna come down to the wire.