Looking At 2015 and 2019
I know the 2011 elections are still 10 months away, but I like looking into the future and wanted to take a look at 2015 and 2019. A couple months can be an eternity in politics, so what does that say about four or eight years? But still, I wanted to look at this and what it means for statewide office holders and others with aspirations to become governor or lieutenant governor.
In 2011, either Phil Bryant or Dave Dennis is likely to win their first term as governor. For lieutenant governor, chances are it will be either Tate Reeves or Billy Hewes. Also, there first term. And with Bryant or Dennis, they would likely run for a second term. Therefore, I would expect Reeves or Hewes to run for a second term.
What this means is that after this year, there will likely not be an open seat for governor or lieutenant governor until 2019. And at that point, you would imagine the sitting lieutenant governor has the inside track for the gubernatorial nomination if they’d want it.
A whole host of issues could come up over the next eight years, but assuming those eight go like the previous eight this is what we very well may be looking at. What this means is that down ballot statewide officeholders who have a desire to run for higher office in the future- I’m mainly looking at Delbert Hosemann and Stacey Pickering- have many years ahead of them before their spot ‘comes open,’ so to speak. That is, of course, if they follow the statewide ladder which they obviously don’t have to.
A wild card is the potential open Senate seat in 2014. Just going off modern history though, the new Senator tends to come from the House (that is the path followed by Thad Cochran, Trent Lott and Roger Wicker), and I wouldn’t expect much to change.