Second District Population Loses Worse Than Anticipated?
After looking at the official 2010 Census county numbers and matching them with the 2009 estimates, it looks like the Second District took a greater hit than believed. That means Bennie Thompson’s district will need to incorporate more of the First and Third than once thought.
A map of the changes in the Second is simply amazing. A total of just five counties that have any part of the district in them grew. Three were very modest: Leake, Copiah and Tallahatchie. Tunica had strong growth (for the tiny county) as did Madison. Madison, along with Leake, are partially in the Second and it will be interesting (especially in Madison) to see exactly where that growth was. My best guess would say more growth was in the Third District portion of Madison, but we’ll see.
Other than that, losses of 10 percent seemed par for the course and 20 percent wasn’t unheard of. But not only that, losses were worse than anticipated in many cases. Here is some of what I am talking about:
In Washington county the estimate was 54,616, but the actual is 51,137. In Bolivar county the estimate was 36,766, but the actual is 34,145. In Leflore county the estimate was 34,563, but the actual is 32,317. In Holmes county the estimate was 20,290, but the actual is 19,198. And in Hinds county, the estimate was 247,631 but the actual is 245,285.
Probably the brightest spot for the Second? Tallahatchie. The 2000 population was 14,903 and today it is 15,400. That’s good for about a three percent increase. That’s nothing great, but the 2009 estimate was 12,638 which would have been a 15 percent loss in population. That equals about an 18 percent difference in the estimation and the actual numbers.
But for the most part, counties either lost as expected- or more. This means that the already expansive district is going to get even bigger.
2010 official Census numbers
2009 Census estimates
Map of the Second District