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Competitive House Races Under The New Map

March 5, 2011

A couple weeks ago I gave a snapshot on seven legislative races that could have very well determined the next Speaker of the House if the Republicans ran the table. That was, of course, under the 2002 legislative maps. As you see below, the new plan was designed to protect competitive Blue Dogs in a very big way- and without shame in a number of cases:

HD 2: Harvey Moss (D-Corinth). His Republican challenger, Chip Wood, has been moved out of the district.

HD 10: Warner McBride (D-Courtland). The BVAP of his district went up from 21 to 29 percent.

HD 25: John Mayo (D-Clarksdale). His district has changed completely and been converted to a majority black district. This means he is off the list of a GOP challenger, but will very likely face a black Democrat.

HD 45: Bennett Malone (D-Carthage). His Republican challenger, Jay Mathis, has been moved out of the district. Also, the BVAP of his district has increased from 30 to 36 percent.

HD 111: Brandon Jones (D-Pascagoula)
. His district saw a massive add-on of black vote going from 13.5 percent BVAP to 29 percent.

We didn’t initially feature HD 93 on that competitive list (although it was on the radar), but it looks like Dirk Dedeaux has gotten in the action of moving challengers out of the district. Under the proposed lines, Kent Alexander has been moved out of the district.

A couple other competitive districts (HD 4 and HD 105) look pretty similar to their previous lines.

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