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Retirements Among Democratic Reps

May 17, 2011

By all accounts, the number of House Democrats opting against re-election- eight (so far)- isn’t that high of a total. Seven Republicans are retiring as well, but it is just who is retiring and the districts they represent that make the difference. Of the GOP held seats, the Democrats don’t look competitive in any of them at this point.

But with the Democratic held seats, seven of the eight are from competitive districts. Not saying the GOP will automatically win any or all of these, but it certainly makes the Democrats chance of holding on to their majority more difficult. Yesterday we reported that Rep. Shaun Walley opted against re-election, and the latest is Rep. Tracy Arinder, according to an email from the Mississippi GOP. Over the weekend it was J.P. Compretta who decided to retire from a seat he has held (off an on) dating back to 1976.

Previous to this weekend, retirement announcements from Reps. Jack Gadd, Warner McBride, Deryk Parker, and Greg Ward posed GOP takeover possibilities. The only open seat safe in the Democratic column is HD 119, held by Rep. Frances Fredericks.

If you follow Congressional elections and retirements, one thing you will notice is that the party facing a difficult election cycle tends to have more retirements from competitive districts. In 2006 and 2008 that was true of Republicans, while the script was reversed for Democrats in 2010.

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One Comment leave one →
  1. rubradog permalink
    May 17, 2011 11:30 am

    If you look back a couple of terms about 20-25 Representatives don’t come back for a new term. Most are from retirements but a couple are from surprise defeats. The “conservative Democrat” label is not going to sell very well anymore in Mississippi. If the Republicans can succeed in making that label “Real Democrat” stick to those legislators (and I think they can) then look for a Republican Speaker in 2012. Since we now have fifteen announced retirements then history tells us we have a few more yet to be announced. I think that some are about to make the analogy to Daniel 5: 5-30.

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