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A Quick Look At 2012 (And 2014)

July 20, 2011

With all of our attention on the primaries that will take place in two weeks and the November elections, I let the 2011 second quarter fundraising period for federal office holders pass by. Not going to delve into a whole lot this early, but the numbers are interesting- and with the primary potential in a four of the five races next fall it could get interesting.

As we have mentioned, Roger Wicker is up for re-election next fall. Right now, he’s sitting on $1.5 million in cash, has continued to be a consistently conservative vote, and I would be shocked to see a serious Democratic challenger emerge. As for the potential for a primary, that seems less and less likely every day; not like I think his campaign was losing much sleep over it to begin with.

The senior senator in the state- Thad Cochran- isn’t up until 2014 and he isn’t raising much money at this point. He would win re-election without spending a dime, but he still looks like a very likely candidate for retirement.

If recent history continues, his replacement will come from the House. Gregg Harper, the senior (two terms) and safest Republican in the delegation, has the least amount of money at $39,000 in cash. As for Steven Palazzo and Alan Nunnelee who already have Republicans wanting to run against them in the primary, they have $144,000 and $283,000 COH, respectively. Nunnelee actually raised the most money for the House delegation over the past three months, but Bennie Thompson continues to sit on- and spend- the most cash. He has more than $1.6 million in cash and spent $176,000. That is about double what anyone else spent (and close to what Nunnelee, Harper, Palazzo, and Cochran spent combined).

And as we have noted in the past, Thompson does have an announced primary challenge from Greenville Mayor Heather McTeer.

23 Comments leave one →
  1. Charlie Stogner permalink
    July 20, 2011 9:31 am

    Wicker may be a conservative voter but I find him useless with FCC matters, an area Lott made sure his staff was up to date on at all times, thanks to Mississippi being home to John Palmer’s SkyTel and before that MTEL and Cellular South and even at one time WorldCom.

    Mississippi is also home to the only national independent cable television networkand it suffers severely from FCC’s Media Bureau’s refusal to fairly administer the rules this firm operates under.

    With Lott and even Congressman Pickering, this growing network was able to get assistance with FCC matters effecting the firm. With Wicker and Harper (they’re both on committees with FCC oversight) there seems to be no interest in helping a constituent even if it may help the state.

    I hope someone that cares about helping Mississippi based telecommunications firms will replace either or both of these legislators.

    • C Jones permalink
      July 20, 2011 10:36 am

      “Mississippi is also home to the only national independent cable television networkand it suffers severely from FCC’s Media Bureau’s refusal to fairly administer the rules this firm operates under. ”
      I have seen this in your post before, does it have a name?

  2. LeBeau0605 permalink
    July 20, 2011 9:54 am

    I’m for State Senator Chris McDaniel running for U.S. Senate!

    • Ivehadbetter permalink
      July 20, 2011 11:05 am

      Ivehadbetter “likes” this.

  3. July 20, 2011 10:27 am

    Yes. McDaniel sounds like a good one to me.

  4. listenupms permalink
    July 20, 2011 10:43 am

    Billy Hewes has tapped Chris McDaniel to be head of judiciary committee and recognized him as a rising star who is very intelligent and articulate. I think he is going places.

    • MSDawg permalink
      July 20, 2011 11:18 am

      Too bad Billy Hewes wont have an office come Jan. 1

  5. jack bauer permalink
    July 20, 2011 11:29 am

    I think Gregg Harper will win Cochran’s Senate seat.

    Depending on redistricting, Chris may or may not be in the Harper Congressional seat.

    Races that also should be on everybody’s radar in the next cycle are the four Supreme Court Justices who will be on the ballot.

  6. catty14 permalink
    July 20, 2011 2:21 pm

    Does anyone else think Barbour might run for the Senate seat? I have felt it would give him a national media forum to continue his leadership in the GOP and would be a logical step if, if…if Thad agrees he needs to step down and retire. Somehow once a member of Congress gets there they seem to lose all attachments outside of D. C. and therefore can’t let go. Go home Thad….go home.

  7. Jim Martin permalink
    July 20, 2011 3:29 pm

    Thad will run for re-election in 2014. If he does, he will win handedly. As he serves the next six years, during that time he may or may not choose to step down. If he does, Gov Phil Bryant will almost certainly offer the opening first to Congressman Gregg Harper, who despite his talk now, will almost certainly accept the vacancy appointment. Harper will have a federal House campaign fund that can be transferred to a Senate race, making him a very strong candidate. IMHO, he would also make a great US Senator.

    • Seriousvoter permalink
      July 20, 2011 5:53 pm

      God help us all!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  8. Scoop permalink
    July 20, 2011 3:30 pm

    Greg Harper needs to stay in the house and we need to elect someone like Chris McDaniel. Harper is a good guy but I don’t feel he’s a senator. McDaniel is a person that would hit the ground running. It would be a waste to stick him in the house. Plus, if McDaniel wanted to be in the house he would be there right now instead of Steven.

    As for this Thad will retire I don’t think so. I think he’s so full of himself that he isn’t worried about losing. He better be. I’m in favor of running McDaniel against him! And farther more, McDaniel would win. Thad needs to come home period. He’s a big spender that I’m sick and tired of. McDaniel is sharp enough to help make that happen.

    • MSDawg permalink
      July 20, 2011 4:27 pm

      “Plus, if McDaniel wanted to be in the house he would be there right now instead of Steven.”

      This could be said of a lot of Republicans in CD4 who “wanted to be in the house” but were to scared to run against Gene.

  9. Adam permalink
    July 20, 2011 3:50 pm

    No to Harper. Double no to Haley. Haley is the same guy that sold us all out with his civil rights museum to fix his image with blacks only to not even run. I for one am ready to see him go and not going to forget that. He’s the last person we need in that seat. Was a good governor but recent actions show he’s about himself and not Mississippi. No Haley, no Haley!

    As for Harper, I for one am tired of Mississippi just moving a congressman up. Wicker is ok, but not a great senator. Harper is great congressman but strikes me as someone that’s doing the only thing he can in life.

    What I’ve seen from State Senator Chris McDaniel I’ve loved. He’s more the leader we need up there. I don’t know if he’d run but he’s got my vote.

    Thad is very beatible right now. All these people that don’t believe that would the same clowns that don’t think a conservative republican should run against big daddy Thad. That’s foolish talk. I’m hoping someone, my first choice being McDaniel, decides to knock him off. It is high time to send that big pig spender home.

    • Chrisman permalink
      July 20, 2011 5:52 pm

      Amen on Haley. I’ve heard the same sentiment from quite a few people. But what does he care about Mississippi…he’ll be back in DC come January 1, if not before.

  10. Matt permalink
    July 20, 2011 4:22 pm

    Although Mississippi seems to rank near the top of tea party activism (and could be the only state with an actual tea party tag???) that has not translated into tea party wins at the ballot box. Mississippi is still a very establishment GOP state. The tea party candidates lost in the Congressional primaries last year (in the 1st and 4th CD’s). Now it seems as if there is little talk about Roger Wicker having to worry about in a serious tea party challenger – at least according to this blog which I believe. It is interesting that you see establishment red state senators facing tea party challengers in states like Utah and Indiana but not Mississippi. No one has ever confused Wicker with being a Republican along the lines of a Jim DeMint…

  11. Travis Rose permalink
    July 20, 2011 5:30 pm

    Mississippi does not have a Tea Party tag yet… I believe Virginia has one. I like theirs with the Gadsden on it.

  12. Scoop permalink
    July 20, 2011 7:18 pm

    MsDawg, I can assure you that Senator McDaniel wasn’t scored of Taylor. It’s a waste to put one of the best statesmen we have in the House where he’s just one of 400 plus. In the senate he’d have a larger voice.

  13. Scoop permalink
    July 20, 2011 7:19 pm

    MsDawg, I can assure you that Senator McDaniel wasn’t scared of Taylor. It’s a waste to put one of the best statesmen we have in the House where he’s just one of 400 plus. In the senate he’d have a larger voice.

  14. MSPolitico1 permalink
    July 20, 2011 8:51 pm

    I do not think that Harper will want the Senate seat. He’s in a pretty safe Republican district, and is well-respected in Washington. Don’t be too surprised if we see him stay in the House and on the road to a leadership position.

    I do not know too much about McDaniel, but the things I have heard have all been positive. It will be interesting to see if he interested in the seat.

    Also, any thoughts on current state-wides running for the seat? What about Secretary Hosemann, Stacey Pickering, or even Tate Reeves?

    • MSDawg permalink
      July 20, 2011 10:51 pm

      I think you are wrong about Harper. I think he wants the Senate seat bad…. Also have heard that Stacey Pickering is interested.

  15. Dontreadonme permalink
    July 20, 2011 9:13 pm

    I believe these next few votes will decide the fate of our senators and representatives. I see challengers for everyone of them. The debt ceiling debate (fiasco) has showed that our congressmen lack leadership. They have no solutions to the nations problems. Just a bunch of followers. Mississippi has always elected Leaders to represent our State.

  16. July 20, 2011 9:58 pm

    Just some notes on MS Senators:

    The last 3 (Wicker, Lott, and Cochran) all came from the House. Stennis was a circuit judge when he won. I don’t believe Eastland was in politics, I know he was cotton planter. Wall Doxey (who won a special election when Eastland didn’t run after being appointed only to lose to Eastland two yrs later) served in the House. Pat Harrison served in the House before being elected to the Senate. Hubert Stephens also served in the House (1911-21) before moving to the Senate (1923-35); so we’re going back a ways here. Same with John Sharp Williams who served in the House (1893-?) and then to the Senate (1911-23).

    Theodore Bilbo served as governor so he would be the last person to go from statewide office to the Senate and that was 1934. James Vardaman was guv from 1904-08 and then moved to the Senate in 1913.

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