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The AGs Race, And The Suburban Vote

August 10, 2011

Four years ago, Jim Hood won re-election by about 145,000 votes over Al Hopkins, his Republican challenger. Needless to say, Hood starts out a heavy favorite as the general elections get rolling post-primary. Hood has remained popular over his two terms, and has been able to win or perform well in areas that are generally out of reach for anyone with a D next to their name.

Can Steve Simpson bring those traditional Republican voters back into the fold? I don’t know, but here is a look at how Hopkins performed compared to Haley Barbour in big GOP counties four years ago. (The difference is the number of more votes won by Barbour in these counties).

More than likely 370,000 votes will win this election. Primary voting was generally on par with numbers from four years ago and I wouldn’t expect much to change in November. This basically means that Simpson will need to improve on Hopkins’ total by about 75,000 votes. In the 13 largest Republican counties, Hopkins underperformed Haley Barbour by more than 58,000 votes (or more than 75 percent of the vote Simpson needs to pick up to win).

Essentially, the first task should be to spot and target these suburban voters, and that could begin in Simpsons’ home base on the Coast. Hopkins was also from the Coast, and underperformed greatly in Harrison and Jackson, along with Hancock. There were some rumblings how voters in other areas of the state don’t like to vote for Coast candidates following last weeks primary, but in this case they didn’t vote for their own. That obviously would need to change.

Desoto was really the only county on here where Hopkins was as strong as a Republican needs to be, winning 69 percent. But 50 percent in Madison or 56 percent in Rankin isn’t going to cut it. Republicans need to be at 60 and 70 percent in those two counties.

On the surface, I could see how this makes it seem like Simpsons’ task isn’t that tall; however there is a reason these Republicans have been voting for Hood. Simpson needs to give them a reason to vote Republican.

17 Comments leave one →
  1. catty14 permalink
    August 10, 2011 7:13 pm

    What else is not included in this analysis is the amount of money Hood had over Hopkins. . If you recall Hood brought in lots of out of state money…some from firms he later did business with over the objection of in-state law firms. Hood went into the race with Al knowing he had the edge and then overwhelmed the campaign with a huge advertising budget that, regardless of the message, was too big to overcome. Hopkins did a remarkable job despite the difference in campaign funding. This difference can not be ignored….many analyst will tell you most often the winner of any race is the one who can raise the most money. This time around we know much more about Hood and his close, close, close association with thugs….i.e. Scuggs, et. al….folks he calls “family” ! So folks will be a little less eager to see their names on contribution reports under Hood’s name.

  2. Coast Rat 4ever permalink
    August 10, 2011 10:17 pm

    Folks this race will def be a real knockdown brawl. Steve is a life-long friend and and close confidant. And he is prepping to go after Hood big time. This race will be much more aggressive than the Hopkins race so get ready for some fireworks. And the Scruggs issue will def surface. Admittedly Steve has a major uphill battle to beat Hood but I do believe it’s doable. Just a few months before the election all my buds were saying Taylor was invincible but Congressman Palazzo is living proof that it can be done. So get ready for a REAL coast candidate to step up to the plate!

    • Ron Williams permalink
      August 11, 2011 4:15 pm

      Her’s what hurts you rat. In typical deceptive fashion you keep referring to the Scruggs issue. Do you not realize that that issue is def attached to Trent Lott. While popular among the party loyalists, working men and woment do not appreciate any attempts to corrupt our legal system. I had several people tell me that they were going to vote for Phil, until the Trent Lott endorsement.

      You can’t have it both ways. Either you stand for something or you don’t.

  3. catty14 permalink
    August 11, 2011 1:12 am

    Coast Rat…..We are ready and willing to help you oust Hood as he is one big disgrace. As I said, Hopkins was outgunned by all the big dollars Hood brought in from out of state. I hope Simpson has more people behind him than Hopkins did but I suspect he probably hasn’t made as many enemies as Hopkins.
    Hood is not bright enough to serve in the postion as attorney general even without all his baggage and misdeeds. And just being the hand- puppet of Mike Moore/Ronnie Musgrove/Dickie Scruggs/Paul Minor alone should be enough to get him defeated if we had decent unbiased media to report facts and not be so slanted to all things Democratic. If Simpson just tells the facts without being “negative” he will have a chance but today’s public is so worn out with all the stupid things the Democrats(see Obama) have done to destroy this country that more negativism is not appealing. I hope Simpson can catch fire.

  4. unowho permalink
    August 11, 2011 9:44 am

    I like Steve Simpson, and will vote for Him, but the question is this. Will he be attorney General for all, or just the Mirror image of Hood except in favor of the Republicans? Both of the Parties, including ours, (R’s) have become so special interests oriented that those who are not party influentials are not represented by either side.

    I am reminded of the Biblical passage ” choose this day whom you will serve ” . If you’re not hooked up with the Party in power, you are headed for damnation.

    • unowho permalink
      August 11, 2011 9:51 am

      Here’s what I would like to hear Steve say that he will do. He needs to promise a full investigation into two things. 1.Govt. corruption involved with the oil spill and 2. Reopen and make public all information regarding Trent Lotts’ involvement or lack of involvement in the Dickie Scruggs judicial Bribery scandal. A committment to these issues would demonstrate that there is no Party Favoritism and Misssissippians are getting an open, and honest AG.

      • Coast Rat 4ever permalink
        August 11, 2011 9:58 am

        News flash Ron, you lost the race for governor by running on these issues. You were trounced on these platforms. Steve will run his campaign based on issues that the overwhelming majority of voters have concerns with and NOT on a few issues that a few conspiracy theorists want him to run on. Because if he was to listen to you then he, too, will get trounced as badly as you did.

        • Ron Williams permalink
          August 11, 2011 2:19 pm

          What’s wrong with running on honesty and principle. You said Steve was a friend of yours. I find that hard to believe.

          I have read some of your recent ” get out the “R” vote ” blogs. If you’re the best we can do for a party cheerleader, we’re in trouble.

          You’re not even willing to raise a thousand dollars for the party.

          Back to that conspiracy theory thing. Did you ever aplogize to me for those DEQ accusations you made and then later your own Blog confirmed everything I said. The purpose of Political Parties is in essence conspiracy.

          You are still a stupid, blithering Idiot. But it’s always good to hear from you.

          Now, Crawl back into your little non-relevant life, until you come up with another “rat moment” on line.

        • Ron Williams permalink
          August 11, 2011 2:23 pm

          Please don’t drag me into your misery anymore. I am busy finding jobs for people in my community. I just got a contract that wiil create about 80 jobs for Jackson Countians. The work is out of State so there will be a net gain of Revenue for Mississippi.

          What have you done for your State. Oh, that’s right, nothing.

          I bet if we took a poll as to which one of us is more valuable to our county. I’d win. But you don’t care. It’s all about you.

        • Ron Williams permalink
          August 11, 2011 2:28 pm

          And one more. I lost the race because I didn’t have name recognition Statewide. Pure and simple. My issues are strong.

          I want to make sure that you are saying, as a confidant to Steve Simpson, that he does not care about honest Government.

          So I can began posting and paying for advertisements Statewide, that say a spokesman for Simpsons’ campaign says that Steve does not believe Honesty, integrity and open Govt. are important in the AGs’ office. I’ll contact the newspapers statewide and get the post its done. Thanks for the statement from Steves’ campaign.

  5. Ron Williams permalink
    August 11, 2011 3:21 pm

    How about this? It starts running statewide, next week.

    A friend of Steve Simpson has told me that Steve does not care about honest Government. Just because I was unsuccessful in my bid for Governor doesn’t mean I can accept dishonest Government. I ask you to help me in our fight against dishonest politicians. You can find the Statement by Steves’ friend by searching { majorityinms } then check comments by Coast Rat 4ever on th AGS race and suburban vote.

    If this friend is truly stating Steves’ position we cannot elect him. As much as I hate this, please vote Jim Hood for AG. Remember ” Principle over party ”

    paid for by ron williams

  6. catty14 permalink
    August 11, 2011 4:31 pm

    Both of you get over yourselves.Ron, don’t destroy what you built. That’s
    stupid.
    Coast Rat….Take your fight against RW to a private line. The MS GOP party will have a hard enough time to make a dent in the trial lawyer’s money dump which will power Hood’s race without in-fighting.

    • Coast Rat 4ever permalink
      August 11, 2011 7:17 pm

      Wow! Just saw the string of emails from Ron! I gotta say that I tend to agree with your comment Catty. But I’m afraid I’m in this for the long haul so im gonna continue to expose Ron. But ole Ron is definitely self-destructing on here without my comments or help. Hmmmm, recall my comments about Ron being unstable? Well he just helped validate this! His outlandish blogs are self-exposing himself so I will take your advise and give it a break….temporarily.

      • Ron Williams permalink
        August 12, 2011 4:27 pm

        Rat, what are you going to expose ? Yes I led a protest at the Beach and we saved jobs for over 100 people. Yes I fired everybody for a day, and the labor board backed off and we saved about 400 jobs. You personally confirmed everything I said about the DEQ and no-bid contracts. SO that was true. You call me unstable, but you don’t have a clue what it takes to keep a business going. especially if you are not politically connected.

        On a non-business note, you ask the parents of orange lake elementary, if my instability was successful. in keeping that school open longer.

        Rat, what you don’t understand is this, ( to be successful in business) sometimes you gotta show your teeth.

    • Ron Williams permalink
      August 12, 2011 4:18 pm

      This guy really hates me and I don’t know why. He has not proven anything I have said to be untrue. I love controlling his blogs. But you’re right, and I have asked this guy to tell me what his beef with me is. I’m out.

      Thanks for the comments.

    • Ron Williams permalink
      August 12, 2011 4:29 pm

      One last blog, rat my phone number is 228-990-4564 You already know that. whatever I did to you, please call me and let’s figure it out.

  7. mongoosepolitics permalink
    August 12, 2011 9:19 am

    I do not understand how Ron Williams is actually considering doing such a thing. Ron, you are taking the word of a person on the world wide web and connecting it to a state wide candidate. Even if the two are friends, how do you know the person is being truthful? With all that said, where are you getting that Simpson doesn’t care about integrity? In my opinion the fact that he is fighting against arguably the state’s most corrupt politician has to mean he does care a considerable amount against dishonest government officials.

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