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More Data On Competitive Districts

September 8, 2011

Yesterday when I looked at the competitive House races, the main data I used in addition to demographics was Haley Barbour’s vote total in that district in 2007. I decided to expand on that model some and look at the vote received by Phil Bryant, Al Hopkins, and Delbert Hosemann in that same year.

And some of this data is pretty interesting. Barbour, Bryant, and Hosemann didn’t necessarily receive similar votes. In some cases, Hosemann outperformed the top of the ticket, in others he ran well behind Barbour. And as you’d imagine, Jim Hood won just about everywhere. Of these 25 competitive districts, the only he didn’t carry was HD 4. But Hood isn’t your usual Democrat as we know.

But overall the Republican percentage in every district went down when I looked at all four races. The GOP did, however, still did manage to receive at least 50 percent in 21 of the 25 districts included.

2 Comments leave one →
  1. Bill Billingsley permalink
    September 8, 2011 4:03 pm

    Interesting, but I wonder what it all means? I don’t think any of the four winners being discussed really were in competitive races, at least not to the extent of Barbour/Musgrove in 2003. Additionally, it’s impossible to determine how much anti-Pelosi sentiment is going to hold over from last year, or how much any anti-Obama sentiment will enter into this year’s races. The best indicator, which would require a lot more work than Brett or anyone else would want to do, might be to analyze the 82 county primary races in 2007. Broken down by precinct, those results could be compared to the general election to get a feel for how many Democrat-primary voters switched to Republican in the general. Then take a similar look at how the county primaries turned out this time and apply the percentage from the 2007 analysis. That might give you an indicator of how many Democrats will vote Republican in the general election. The percentage certainly won’t be any less this time, and might be greater. Of course, party matters less when you know the candidates, so the legislative races might go in a different direction altogether. I guess we’ll know in November…

    • I want to ask permalink
      September 8, 2011 4:35 pm

      Bill
      With the time constraints you have with your current employment, you should be nominated for this task!

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