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More Details On The New Maps

December 21, 2011

We talked about some of the changes to the Jackson area under the new Congressional maps drawn by a panel of federal judges earlier. Basically, Gregg Harper will pick up Voting Districts 1, 5, 15, and 47 while 46 and 79 are headed to MS-02 and Bennie Thompson. VTD 15 fits in with the Republican leanings of MS-03 but the other three are South of the traditional North Jackson base of MS-03 and include VTD 47 which is more than 80 percent black and gave Obama 93 percent of the vote. It won’t make a difference on Election Day, but was interesting in that not all moves lined up with the respective districts.

Here is what else these moves mean: The state capitol and governor’s mansion will now be represented by Harper rather than Thompson who previously had that territory. But Harper is now reaching into downtown and toward I-20 in Hinds county. He isn’t even that far from Jackson State now.

The pink represent precincts moved to MS-02 while the bright green represents precincts moved to MS-03

In Madison county, the massive Gluckstadt precinct is now in MS-03. This makes sense. The precinct, with more than 10,000 residents, gave John McCain 82 percent of the vote in 2008. Is there a bigger precinct in the state? Shifting to MS-02 are Canton 3, Cedar Grove, and Ratliff Ferry. Of those, Cedar Grove is the only Republican precinct.

Beyond the demo’s that we have talked about, here is how the new districts voted in 2008. MS-01 would have been 62/ 37 McCain; MS-02 would have been 64/ 35 Obama; MS-03 would have been 61/ 38 McCain; MS-04 would have been 68/ 31 McCain. So really not that different on any front.

Here is the funny thing when you look at this: Of the Republican districts, MS-03 is considered the most Republican despite the fact that it has the highest BVAP of the three and gave Obama a higher percentage than MS-01 and MS-04. Remember, when this seat was open in the strong Democratic year of 2008, Democrats failed to field a serious candidate even as they had a nice pickup in the First. And when you look in the district for potential candidates, do you see any?

The district may only be 61 percent white, which is low for a Republican district, but it is as safe for the GOP as any. White voters simply don’t vote Democrat here (63 percent white VAP, 61 percent McCain). As is, this district is good for Harper or any Republican for at least ten years.

2 Comments leave one →
  1. Sid permalink
    December 21, 2011 9:00 am

    Remember, when this seat was open in the strong Democratic year of 2008, Democrats failed to field a serious candidate even as they had a nice pickup in the First. And when you look in the district for potential candidates, do you see any?

    MS-03 has many potential Dem candidates. Cecil Brown and David Blount immediately come to mind … though I doubt they have the courage and spunk we saw from Dorsey Carson to run against an incumbent. How about Kelvin Butler who was unopposed this cycle? He’d win 30-35% of the vote without even trying. Heck, both of Bobby Moak’s houses are already in the 3rd so he wouldn’t have to keep hiding the fact that he actually lives in Madison.

    I think the bigger question in 2012 is which Democrat wants to run in the General with Obama on the ballot?

  2. Bill Billingsley permalink
    December 21, 2011 11:07 am

    None of the people you mention are willing to give up their little empires to try and run for Congress given the odds that they’ll get spanked. Things may change if the new Speaker sits some of the old white Democrats on the bench, but most of these men already have what they want. It will take someone like Bill Luckett who can fund his own campaign and can afford to give up his day job to even make a run at Harper, and I don’t think that person exists in District Three.

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