Majority Sports
****Week Ten Schedule and Picks are now up.***Week Nine Notes are now up.Mike Huckabee press release:
Huck PAC and Governor Mike Huckabee are proud to endorse Senator Alan Nunnelee for Mississippi Congress (CD-1).
Senator Nunnelee has been strong voice for republicans for over a decade in the Mississippi Senate. A true pro-life champion, Sen. Nunnelee agrees that every single life has value, and should be protected from the moment of conception.
Senator Nunnelee was instrumental in bringing comprehensive Tort Reform to Mississippi. Nunnelee has also been nationally recognized for his success in making Mississippi the safest place for unborn children.
He has been rated as a Business Champion for his support of issues relating to the free enterprise system as well as recognized by the Mississippi Lions Eye Bank for invaluable service to the blind.
“Alan has been a faithful public servant for over decade, and in that time has been guided by an unwavering pro-life stance. I look forward to seeing Senator Nunnelee head to Washington D.C. to represent the people of Mississippi.”
My Take on Virginia and New Jersey
This has been the hot topic of the week and I know it doesn’t really pertain too much to us here, but I think it gives us a good gage on how certain groups are feeling right now and what we may be able to expect in a year. We are still a whole year away from the 2010 elections and a lot can change between now and then, but I think we are seeing based on the races this week that so-called independents have maybe moved back more red where they have been blue of late in elections. Each party can get their bases out and vote but it is this large group in the middle that really dictates the results nowadays. Critics will say Virginia and New Jersey are local races and have no effect on a national scene, but let’s keep in mind that these same folks who voted this week will vote next year on House and Senate races. The big picture right now is that conservatives are motivated to go out and vote while key groups in the Democratic base could care less right now and that may be a telling sign in states around the country next year including ours.
Childers Stays on Pattern
It should come as no surprise that Travis Childers is going to oppose the House version of a healthcare reform bill when you consider this statement from Steny Hoyer:
“We certainly have well over 218 people who say they want to vote for the bill”
As has been the case in the past Mr. Childers apparently will not be needed by his liberal colleagues so he has been freed to vote against it and hopefully save his hide in 2010. Also, I think Mr. Childers may be fretting a bit from what happened in Virginia this week where so-called conservative democrats, like himself, were taken out behind the woodshed by Republicans.
Fort Hood
Our thoughts and prayers go out to those who were killed and injured yesterday at Fort Hood in Texas. It is really sobering to think that nowadays you cannot even feel safe on a military base in our country. We do not know much about the motives of the killer, a serviceman himself, and I don’t really want to speculate at this time. It is a sad day today knowing that 13 people who volunteered to protect this country at all cost were killed by one of their own at a place where they should have felt safe and secure.
Rep. Travis Childers released this statement on H.R. 3962 yesterday:
“Today, millions of hard-working Americans are suffering from soaring premiums that are increasing seven times faster than wages. Our country needs health care reform, and there is no one who wants to see the implementation of successful reform and lower premiums for individuals and families more than I do.
“However, for several reasons, I will vote ‘no’ on the House’s health care reform bill, H.R. 3962.
“First and foremost, I cannot vote for legislation with this big of a price tag in today’s economic climate. I would also like to see legislation that contains stronger language to prohibit federal funding for abortion and provides equal access to care for individuals in rural communities. My concerns in these areas have not been sufficiently addressed by this legislation.
“Health care reform legislation in the House has come incredibly far from where it was when we began this discussion. But we need to get this legislation right, not just get it fast.
“Potential reform is still a work in progress, and the House bill is only one of many steps that lie ahead before Congress votes on final legislation. The Senate has yet to act on its bill and we don’t know what the conference report – the final bill – will ultimately look like. It must be a commonsense plan that reflects Mississippi values.”
I consider it no coincidence that this statement came out exactly one day after Republicans won big in New Jersey and Virginia. About the legislation, I believe Pelosi and the Democrat leadership is still bent on pushing through a vote- possibly Saturday. After all, Pelosi declared Democrats the winners on Tuesday night (just in case you were wondering what type of fantasy world she lives in that should confirm it).
Alan Nunnelee released this statement voicing his pleasure with Childers’ decision, but raised an important point: that he did not rule of voting for future versions of the bill. It also includes several points Nunnelee would like to see in a healthcare bill.
I have mentioned Henry Ross a few times in the past (here and here) because of his interest in running for the First District seat held by Travis Childers. The former Eupora mayor told CQ Politics that he intends to make a decision after the first of the year. Ross attended the GOP “candidate school” that they held over the summer, but still faces an uphill battle against Alan Nunnelee who appears to have the backing of the state and national party (even if they don’t explicitly say that).
I spent considerable amount of time thinking about what last night’s election may mean for 2010- specifically the race in Mississippi’s First District. While it is difficult to make any comparisons between states, Southwestern Virginia is home to many largely white, rural districts similar to MS-01. Here is a map to see who they supported last night (hint: it wasn’t Creigh Deeds).
Shortly after the race, GOP Whip Eric Cantor made this statement: “This is a shot across the bow to the moderates and Blue Dog Democrats as they decide votes on health care (and other issues).”
I could see that being true, and I imagine some Blue Dogs in competitive districts may sense the turning tide. The moderates and Independents who liked Obama in 2008 are now looking elsewhere.
That said, MS-01 never really liked Obama. And Travis Childers never really used him in his election(s). When Childers won, many used that as an endorsement of the Democrats and a rejection of the Republicans. That was not the case. It was an endorsement of regional issues and a rejection of Desoto county.
And for that reason, it’s hard to say that last night can tell us much about 2010 in the First District. What we knew before has not changed: the voters are conservative, they have a history of supporting local Democrats and national Republicans, and want someone who can appeal to them.
The one thing I would be nervous about if I was Childers is turnout. Black voters made up about 20 percent of the Virginia electorate in 2008 with Obama on the top of the ballot. That was down to around 15 percent this time around without Obama. It is no secret that Childers benefited from that turnout a year ago. And signs indicate it will not be there for him in 2010.
Last night was the best election night for Republicans as a whole since 2004. The year 2007 was nice, especially here in Mississippi, but the GOP and Democrats swapped contests in Louisiana and Kentucky essentially resulting in a draw for the evening. There is no other way to spin it: last night was a win for the Republicans. And more then having two new office holders, the GOP faithful should feel like they have the winds at their back. One year ago, we were lectured on the transformative election of 2008 and how we would be relegated to permanent minority status as a regional party. Of course, that was as accurate as predictions of the Democrats demise after 2004.
Even before the races were called, the spin machine was busy saying how this wasn’t a referendum on Obama- as if that made the wins less meaningful. I generally agree with that statement. After all, Obama hasn’t even been in office a year. That said, the candidates (especially in New Jersey) did everything they could to tie themselves to Obama. He sure couldn’t save them or convince minorities and young people to vote.
The other statement we hear continuously is how these elections were part of pattern by these two states in voting in opposition to the party in charge. Talk about an excuse. Then why did you bother to run a candidate? Spend millions on the contests? Send Obama to campaign when he could be focusing on other issues?
Read all of my 2009 analysis below the fold.
Several high profile elections will be decided today including gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey, as well as a special election for NY-23. I have been following those races closely, and may do a follow up tomorrow morning, but have opted not to write about them as this is a Mississippi blog. But one issue that has been debated in great detail here is law for at least one of those key races. I am talking about early voting. New York permits a form of early voting. Up until this past Saturday, there was a three race for the open Congressional seat in upstate New York between a liberal Democrat, a liberal Republican and a Conservative Party candidate (who as the name would suggest, is a conservative). That liberal Republican- Dede Scozzafava- abruptly pulled out of the race on Saturday citing sinking poll numbers. However, I can’t help but wonder how many people voted for Scozzafava during the early voting period who would now vote for Doug Hoffman- the conservative candidate.
The issue has been debated at great lengths in Mississippi, and came close to becoming law this past spring. This is just another reason to be cautious next time someone tells you we need it.
I have noted the lack of reaction from Travis Childers and his fellow Blue Dogs after the unveiling of the Democrats plan to re-write one-sixth of our economy in the name of healthcare reform. On Friday, Alan Nunnelee- on the other hand- offered this statement:
The leadership in the House of Representatives unveiled their latest health care proposal, after failing to get the necessary support for their earlier one. This new proposal is just the same song, second verse. It still involves a public option, more debt, and more government. In short, less control by doctors and patients, more power to the bureaucrats. We do need health care financing reform, but reform that puts the patients and their physicians in charge and not the bureaucrats.
The Gallo rumor mill has been turning and the talk radio superstar has mentioned on a couple of occasions over the past week that a group of Democrat office holders will be switching to the Republican Party. This includes- possibly- a County Sheriff, Supervisor, Constable, and Justice Court judge. The expected number is now six. This is supposed to happen sometime this week.
One of the first ACLU vs. Desoto County lawsuits that I started talking about involved a student who was expelled for having gang related pictures on his cell phone that was confiscated by school officials. You can check out a few previous posts here. To update you on this case: the City of Southaven, Southaven police department and Desoto County Schools have been officially served. The reason I mentioned this is because media reports from early September stated that the ACLU would be serving the county at that time; that was not the case. The city plans to seek summary judgment to be removed from this case, and will defend the actions of the school/ officer/ city regardless.
Geoff Pender at the Sun Herald has a good story on the Dave Dennis candidacy. Dennis has received a lot of publicity of late, especially in South Mississippi, and does not appear to be any pushover in the Republican primary for governor.
Besides lack of name recognition, Pender makes the valid point about that politicians from the Coast have not been able gain much traction in statewide elections (Mike Moore being the obvious exception). Those are certainly two big hurdles to climb. But it is possible that his geography may not be the hurdle many think it will be, at least in the GOP primary. As the state has no party registration, primaries are open and Democrats continue to dominate the numbers in terms of voters for the primaries. This is due to the strong presence of the Democrat party at the local level where the primary determines the general election winner in many cases. I would venture to say that these voters, from some of the most rural parts of the state, are the ones who may be turned off by Dennis’ ties to the Coast (so they wouldn’t have a chance to vote against him).
The GOP primary electorate will mostly be from a handful of suburban counties, include a good size chunk in South Mississippi. By virtue of having a smaller and condensed primary base, Dennis can specifically target his ads in those counties to try to compete with Phil Bryant and his name recognition. And if he could exit that primary victorious, I like his chances in the general election.
The moderate and conservative Democrats who call themselves Blue Dogs love to consider themselves fiscally responsible, and have been known to bark- even if they have no bite to back it up. One of those members is Travis Childers, and I looked at his quiet response to the healthcare bill yesterday. Well, the Washington Examiner has also taken note of this wondering if the Blue Dogs will even bark.
Higher Education Commissioner Hank Bounds decided not to tackle the thorny issue of consolidation at the university level- either through merging or closures. He did seem to leave the door open when he mentioned the fact that we have had talks in the past “without going very far…This year may be different given the economic uncertainty.” Bounds did add that he was “concerned” for the future of MUW, one of the two school most often mentioned in consolidation talks.
Bounds was asked about the topic during a meeting yesterday to discuss the enactment of the 2004 settlement of the Ayers college desegregation case. Besides saving money via consolidation, he did note that they were being as lean as possible with the budget and they may save money through the consolidation of programs or eliminating certain academic programs at various universities.
The last time we heard Rep. Travis Childers talking about the proposed healthcare legislation was a week ago when he said he didn’t want a bill that added to the deficit. Then earlier this week Nancy Pelosi released what we’ve all been waiting for scared of. The bill totals 1990 pages at a cost of $2.2 million per page (or $1.055 trillion for those of you scoring at home). And as we all know, the government never spends more than they say they are going to…
Rep. Gregg Harper was the first member of the delegation to speak up- and speak out- about this bill. At the same time, we have yet to hear any reaction from Childers- a man facing a very tough re-election challenge in almost exactly one year.
The Desoto Times had a story about MS-01 today and the impact their county will have on the overall race. They speak with Mississippi politics go-to-guy Marty Wiseman about the county and the race in general. Without getting into much of the article, Wiseman made a comment that peaked my interest.
“I’ve seen a little sign here and there that there is starting to be some balance in the county,” Wiseman said. “DeSoto County is still very, very Republican but there are indications it will not always be as Republican as it is.”
Wiseman said the increasing number of black voters in the county, coupled with progressives moving into the county from metropolitan areas in Memphis, could change the future dynamic of the county’s voting patterns.
That change has already begun to take shape, Wiseman said.
“There are a lot of people who go to church on Sunday or stand around the water cooler and call themselves a Republican, but really, deep down, they are not married to a party.”
I don’t necessarily disagree with Wisemann. We are currently seeing that in suburbs across the country so this would just be part of a national trend. But I did do some digging for some historical perspectives on how the county has voted.
In 2008, John McCain carried the county winning 69 percent of the vote (about 44,000 votes) to Barack Obama’s 31 percent (or more than 19,000 votes). McCain carried the state with 56 percent overall. Earlier that spring in the MS-01 special election, Southaven Mayor Greg Davis won the county with 75 percent of the vote (or over 15,000 votes) compared to 25 percent for Travis Childers (about 5000 votes).
Four years earlier, George W. Bush won the county picking up 72 percent of the vote (or around 36,000 votes) to John Kerry’s 27 percent (or 13,000 votes). At the same time, Bush carried the state with 59 percent of the vote. So over four years, Obama picked up three percent of the vote in the county, but he also did that in the state overall.
Going back a little further, Bush won the county in 2000 with 71 percent of the vote (or about 25,000 votes) compared to Al Gore’s 27 percent (about 9500 votes). That year, Bush carried the state with 57.5 percent overall. Once again, the trend of the county mirrors the state. Bush had a +1 percent increase in the state from 200 to 2004 and +1.5 percent in the county.
And if you want to go back even further, just for fun, here are the 1996 results: Bob Dole won the county with 54 percent of the vote (or 18,000 votes) to Bill Clinton’s 30 percent (or 10,000 votes). Third party candidates enjoyed 16 percent of the vote (about 5,000 votes). Dole won the state 49-44.
If will be tough to compare the turnout and results of 2010 to previous presidential years. I would wait until 2012 and see which way the county goes before any predictions are made about which way it is headed.
In light of the topic making headlines over the past week, the Clarion-Ledger posted a question on whether you think school consolidation is a good idea. Here are the results through this morning:
Of course, the poll is not scientific but I don’t believe there are that many people who are interested in running up the results of an online poll on this topic. I still believe consolidation is popular among a large majority of the citizens from every corner of the state. Like I said before, I’ve never heard anyone say that 152 separate school districts is a good idea. Like many things, it’s a few powerful people and some politicians with their heads in the sand keeping this from becoming a reality.
I saw a headline on the Clarion Ledger’s website this morning that read “Lamar County voters OK alcohol sales.” As you may know, Lamar County is a dry county. And no, the entire did not vote to permit alcohol sales, just a portion recently annexed by Hattiesburg. The voters supported alcohol sales unanimously: 4-0. Six of the ten registered voters did not vote. Who says your vote doesn’t count?
