Will Budget Struggles Be A Blessing For ‘Outsider’ Candidates?

After a week off, I’m not going to delve into what happened over the past week. But the issue of the day continues to be Haley Barbour’s proposed budget- specifically the mergers. While we have heard a lot of talking, mostly demagoguery from opponents, the legislature will soon have to come up with their own plans.

Without seeing an advanced copy of the Democrats proposals, I can guarantee this will be the center of the platform: raid the rainy day fund. It’s what they always want to do. It’s what they will propose again. But beyond that, I started to think about the potential fallout from the economic situation at hand. Ronnie Agnew had a good column over the weekend where he made the point that the term-limited Barbour was taking a hit for 2011 candidates.

The main 2011 candidate who will be involved in this is Phil Bryant, who presides over the Senate as Lt. Governor. Any bill will have to have his stamp of approval. Bryant has been fairly quiet regarding Barbour’s proposals, but that will soon change. He is a very tricky position of not wanting to alienate conservatives in the GOP primary or powerful interests groups who may take a hit in next year’s budget.

I’m weary to say that Bryant would take a hit among the population as a whole because there is no real evidence to support that opposition to mergers comes from anyone outside of a vocal minority. But next year’s session has the makings of one that can be politically poisonous.

The following year, Bryant faces two “outsider” candidates. In the GOP primary, his main opposition appears to be Coast businessman Dave Dennis who has some comparing him to Kirk Fordice. Should Bryant proceed to the general election, he will most likely face Delta attorney Bill Luckett. Neither of those men will have to vote on a budget. They will not be making headlines for being forced to make unpopular choices.

Of course, some may feel they need to reward Bryant for being in the middle of the battle and doing the right thing, rather than the easy thing. Time will tell. But, for right now, you would be going out on a limb to say either Dennis or Luckett would defeat Bryant. We will see how Bryant is looking by this spring.