Johnny DuPree and South Mississippi

In the Democratic primary and runoff, Johnny DuPree, the mayor of Hattiesburg, was very strong in south Mississippi, particularly what makes up the Fourth Congressional District as we have noted.

In the first round of voting, DuPree won every county in the district, while Bill Luckett picked up Perry, George, and Greene in the runoff. That said, in the population centers, DuPree was his strongest: 93% in Forrest, 61% in Hancock, 86% in Harrison, 86% in Jackson, 86% in Jones, 90% in Lamar, 88% in Pearl River. These large counties vote overwhelmingly in the Republican primaries, but DuPree did post nice numbers that certainly helped carry him to victory.

Since we talked about the trouble that DuPree had attracting votes in Northeast Mississippi, which has been considered the most competitive part of the state, could DuPree do better in his native area which is among the most Republican parts of the state? You would think it has to be appealing on the surface.

Fifteen counties make up the present day Fourth Congressional District. In the past five gubernatorial elections, counties in MS-04 have voted for the Democratic nominee a total of nine times (out of 75 opportunities). Of late, Jasper has emerged as the strongest Democratic county in the district, with Wayne and Greene tending to be in play for either party. And it really stops there.

In DuPree’s home county of Forrest, it gave Haley Barbour 58 and 61 percent of the vote in his two runs, and hasn’t voted Democratic in (at least) the past twenty years. Other large Pine Belt counties are probably more Republican than Forrest. Barbour was at 60 percent in Jones twice, and Lamar is one of the most Republican counties in the state giving Barbour 72 and 75 percent of the vote.

Four years ago, the Coast showed among the highest spike in their vote for Barbour. The Republican hit 70 percent in the three Coast counties if you’ll round up his 69.55 in Jackson (this compared with mid to upper 50s in 2003). Facing three challengers with South Mississippi ties, Phil Bryant had his weakest showing on the Coast, along with Pearl River county. You can come to your own conclusions, but I would be very surprised if the vote along the Coast doesn’t return to the Republican column on Election Day.

Moreover, the district has a Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) of R+20 and gave John McCain over 60 percent of the vote. Heck, even former Democratic Rep. Gene Taylor tried telling voters he backed McCain in 2008. Needless to say, even with a nice showing in these counties in the primaries, DuPree has a long way to go to alter the strong Republican bend in his home region.