While this may rattle some conservatives across the country, those who have been following Barbour for some time know he never has been one to talk tough regarding illegal immigration, departing from state leaders such as Lt. Gov. Phil Bryant. In fact, Barbour’s 2007 opponent- John Arthur Eaves- ran to the right of Barbour on the immigration issue. And most recently, Barbour questioned the need for an Arizona-type law in Mississippi that is being pushed by many within the Mississippi GOP.

In his latest interview, Barbour called for a “common-sense” immigration policy, and said this about 10-14 million illegals in the country: “A lot of it is just common sense. And common sense tell us we’re not going to take 10 or 12 or 14 million people and put them in jail or deport them. We’re not going to do it, and we need to quit – some people need to quit acting like we are and let’s talk about real solutions.”

The question is: what does this mean for 2012? Can someone win the Republican nomination by taking the Bush-McCain position on immigration. Barbour is as smart as they come and knows what he is doing. If anything, this just shows that opponents are not going to be able to pigeon-hole the Mississippi governor and his positions are well-thought out and backed with facts.

From the presser:

Seldom have Congressional candidates been called to active duty so close to Election Day. But according to Palazzo, it’s just what comes with the territory: “My call to active duty comes during a challenging time, and adds to my already demanding schedule. I am still running a small business, serving the people of Mississippi House District 116, campaigning to unseat Gene Taylor, and most importantly, spending precious time with my family. Life as a citizen-soldier comes with sacrifice, and families of soldiers sacrifice the most while their loved ones serve multiple tours abroad. I am proud to be a citizen-soldier and I am grateful for the opportunity to defend our nation’s freedoms against our foreign and domestic enemies.”

I am not a conspiracy theorist, but I do find the timing of this a little interesting. How this affects the campaign is too be announced, I suppose. The rest of the press release is below the fold.

Steven Palazzo, State Representative and conservative Republican candidate for Mississippi’s 4th Congressional District, has been called to active duty for Annual Training at Camp Shelby for the next two weeks.

While combat troops are exiting the Iraq theatre, the war is escalating in Afghanistan, and thousands of troops are training at Camp Shelby to be deployed. Representative Palazzo’s mission at Camp Shelby Joint Force Training Center (CSJFTC) is to support base operations, which oversees the training and deployment of troops who will soon be sent to hostile areas around the world.

Representative Palazzo is a former member of the United States Marines 3rd Force Recon, and is a combat veteran of Operation Desert Storm. As a member of the Mississippi Army National Guard, he previously served on active duty at Camp Shelby in 2004 and 2005 in support of Operation Iraqi Freedom.

Mitch Daniels, R-Governor of Indiana, was the featured guest at a MS GOP fundraiser last night in Jackson with Haley Barbour.  Interestingly, both Daniels and Barbour have been names that have been thrown out for the GOP candidate for President in 2012.  Daniels has long been a popular and good governor in Indiana, much like Barbour here in Mississippi.  It goes without saying that both are very respectable candidates should they choose to run and would be very popular with some groups.  Of course both were asked about it at the fundraiser, but as expected neither tipped their hand at what they were thinking.  I think both would play well to those looking for a personable candidate that you could relate with.

Football Season Is Upon Us

It is that time of the year again where Saturdays are once again consumed by hours upon hours of college football here in the south.  College football is a staple of life here in Mississippi and in the South and for many folks it ranks right up their with God, family and politics.  Speaking of politics it is always interesting to see candidates scrambling around to tailgates in the fall on college campuses and seeing many people show their support by wearing stickers or buttons in support.  I look forward to seeing candidates making their pitch on a college football Saturday in the South.  I hope that everyone that loves college football and their team will have a great year and enjoy the ups of the season and weather the downs because in the end there is always next year.

Let’s say both Childers and Taylor do that- and win re-election- while there party drops around three dozen seats. Republicans need 39 seats to capture the majority and guarantee a Republican Speaker (assuming all Republicans stay in line and we have no reason to think otherwise).

But for some fun and drama, what if the Republicans are two or three seats shy of that majority? The run-up to the Speaker vote in January would be like nothing we have seen. Obviously, the 2008 Speaker vote in Mississippi between Billy McCoy and Jeff Smith was intense and something for the ages- but just put that on a national scale. In this scenario, Democrats are doing everything they can to hold all there members- including Taylor and Childers- while the Republicans put pressure on them to come over to their side. They could effectively be what is standing between Nancy Pelosi as Speaker or Nancy Pelosi as Minority Leader in this case.

This leads to the next question: what would they do in that situation? You can argue the 2007 and 2009 votes for Pelosi did not matter much considering the overwhelming majority Democrats had, but what happens if that is not the case.

Or does a Blue Dog (Heath Schuler joked about this recently) make a run, get enough members from within that ranks and enough Republicans who feel Pelosi is unbeatable otherwise to join them.

Taylor and Childers seem to dismiss concerns about their vote for Pelosi. If they survive 2010, it is without question that their Speaker vote will be a significant one in January 2011.

This year is certainly not the first time Democrats have made these claims. In fact, you can look at just about every Democratic campaign and this argument will be made somewhere. But, in light of everything else go against the Democrats- this may become a key issue for them because it is the only issue for them.

That is just not me talking. A poll from Rasmussen last week showed Americans trust Republicans on the ten key issues identified. (Interestingly, the poll included Social Security with voters giving the GOP at 44-38 advantage on the issue). And a Gallup poll released today gave the Republicans the upper hand on seven of nine issues, although Social Security was not polled. Why is this important? Democrats are swimming upstream with virtually every issue of importance to voters- economy, national security, immigration, federal spending- and must feel like this is what they are left with. In similar situations, we’d call it old reliable like a broken-in catcher’s mitt.

This can be added with the fact that older voters- those either receiving Social Security or close to it- disproportionally vote in mid-terms.

We have seen an attempt from Democrats- national and local- to try to the same thing with Alan Nunnelee. Travis Childers kicked off his re-election campaign by saying Nunnelee “supports “a plan that puts senior’s benefits at risk.” In July, the Childers campaign sent out a press release saying, “Mr. Nunnelee…is losing additional support every day for caving into his party leaderships’ plans to privatize Social Security and raise the retirement age for senior citizens.” In June, Childers’ senior advisor Brad Morris said, “Instead of talking about suspicious polls, Alan Nunnelee should explain why he wants to privatize Social Security and why he keeps raising our taxes after 15 years in the legislature.”

Going back throughout the GOP primary- where Henry Ross and Angela McGlowan supported at least some form of privatization- the DCCC sent out multiple press releases accusing Nunnelee of either supporting it as well or not giving a position on the matter. At the same time that this was going on, Childers- not yet campaigning- used his office to send out an email reminding his constituents that Mississippians are being threatened” by privatization talks that would “gamble the financial security of millions of hard-working American in our volatile stock market.”

Nunnelee has since responded to critics when he told the Jackson Free Press that he does not support privatization. Even after that Democrats continued to say Nunnelee does; but they seemingly have backed off. It will be interesting to see if Childers runs any ads saying something to that affect. I’d be shocked, but would not be to see the DCCC do something to that extent.

Here is the statement from the NRCC: “It’s no surprise that Washington Democrats have an ongoing ethics problem, but it is outrageous that Travis Childers endorses his party’s corruption by holding onto his colleagues’ dirty contributions. With the economy in dire straits, it’s inexcusable that Childers is allowing his fellow Democrats to abuse their power for financial gain. By refusing to give back his pile of tainted money, Childers is telling Mississippi voters that he’s part of the problem in Washington.”

The Childers campaign shot back (issuing comments very similar to what they said when the incumbent is compared to Nancy Pelosi, etc.) by simply saying: “Nunnelee and his supporters in Washington are once against spewing political rhetoric.”

Bryant endorses Marcy in MS-02. The Bill Marcy campaign sent out a presser yesterday touting the endorsement of Lt. Gov. Phil Bryant in their race against Bennie Thompson.

Bryant said: “I am happy to endorse a former law enforcement officer, Bill Marcy, for congress in the 2nd Congressional District. Bill has served our country in the National Guard and is a pro business fiscal conservative. The Democrats, lead by Nancy Pelosi in Washington, have had their chance to govern, and they have failed miserably. We need a change to a true fiscal conservative in Mississippi’s 2nd Congressional District. That change can start by sending Bill Marcy to Congress.”

How to properly distance yourself from Pelosi. Politico has another story up today as more Democrats try to distance themselves from Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi. As we have noted, Pelosi and Democratic leaders have generally given vulnerable members permission to “do what they have to do.”

However, some Pelosi allies are warning there is a right way- and a wrong way- to handle the situation. “Don’t do something that can be used against another Democrat. Talking against Washington insiders is not the same as the ‘Pelosi energy tax’ or ‘Obamacare.’ You have to be smart here,” a Democratic official told Politico.

Besides the ads we have seen (and highlighted here and here), other ways that Democratic House members have sough distance includes mentioning the possibility that Pelosi “might get sick and die,” preventing her from running for the post again. That was Rep. Bobby Bright (D-AL), and while I doubt he made those comments with much thought or seriousness, they certainly raised some eyebrows. Another Blue Dog- Rep. Heath Schuler (D-NC)- made an off the cuff remark that he may run for Speaker of the House. Whether or not he was serious remains to be seen.

The fact that Travis Childers has not said anything of substance- at least when prompted in public settings- on Pelosi is interesting. Maybe he feels he doesn’t need to; maybe he feels there is nothing to gain and everything to lose.

But, there will inevitably be changes to the districts- especially the Second. As we noted in a recent story mainly related to state legislative redistricting, the area hardest hit by population loses has been the Delta. The Delta, of course, makes up the bulk of the Second District. At the same time the city of Jackson, which mostly rests in the Second, has also seen a population hit. Desoto in the First and Rankin and Madison in the Third have been the biggest beneficiaries of population gains. So clearly, lines will not be able to stay exactly as they are.

Here is a link to a full-size image of the current MS-02 lines.

That leads to the question, what do you do to make up for this? Considering the growth of the suburbs, you would have to imagine both the First and Third will lose something to even things out with the Second.

Without any real inside knowledge other than some maps, the top candidates to exit the First and join the Third are Tate, Panola, Yalobusha and/ or Grenada. Geographically, that would make the most sense. As for demographics, Tate is 67.5 percent white, Panola is 51.3 percent white, Yalobusha is 60 percent white and Grenada is 56.5 percent white. Of course, all these counties will not be leaving and chances are they get broken up in some way. There are few more options in the Third district with counties to the East (Winston, Leake, etc.), as well as in the Southwest portion of the state (Adams, Franklin, etc.).

This is where everything gets interesting. You have the potential to increase the percentage of the white vote in the Second- which I am sure Bennie Thompson does not want. At the same time, that would dilute it some in the First which may or may not matter to Democrats depending on who wins in the fall. Considering the solid Republican lean of the Third, I do not see either party making a big deal about it.

This is all just speculation as you know. One big thing we will have to see- with both state legislative districts as well as Congressional- is if the exodus from the Delta was disproportionately white, black, or split evenly to mirror the previous demographics.

And for the record, the greatest spread for the GOP in 1994 was a five-point advantage. Like I said, this is uncharted territory for Republicans.

Will Republicans win by 10 points? I kind of doubt it. Gallup polls historically fluctuate and have done so this summer but this just adds to the sense that Republicans not only have a good chance of winning the House, pretty soon they will be considered favorites to do so.

But, here are three things that will happen if the 10-point lead hold up:

1) Republicans will capture the House rather easily. I think the Republicans would regain the majority if they won around 52.5-53 percent of the vote. Add a couple more points to that total and you’re looking at another 15 or so seats for the GOP in all likelihood.

2) Travis Childers is gone. No way he can survive that type of environment and there is not much analysis needed.

3) Steven Palazzo likely wins. Simply going by these national numbers, and the national tendency of House elections, political winds say Gene Taylor would have a tough time surviving in that type of environment.

Harper and Gill to debate. Rep. Gregg Harper and his Democratic opponent, Joel Gill, are expected to square off at a town-hall in Starkville on September 4th. The event is hosted by the Starkville Tea Party and Sid Salter will serve as moderator. Gill is one of the few Democrats (in the country) that I know of who is appearing at Tea Party sponsored events, but he can certainly use any publicity he can get.

Nunnelee praises special session work. Alan Nunnelee sent out a presser on Friday proclaiming that this recent special session “will have helped a real business create 1,000 real jobs, changing lives and making 1,000 Mississippi families stronger.”

Nunnelee and Travis Childers have been fighting over job creation and spending this past week, and Nunnelee enjoyed using this special session as a difference between the work he has done in the state legislature and the way things are done in Washington:

“Washington can learn something from Mississippi. As your congressman, I will take this common sense approach of creating jobs to Washington. Over the past two years, Nancy Pelosi and her liberal leadership team have wasted over $800 billion in frivolous spending, frightening businesses with future taxes, inflation and onerous regulations.

In Mississippi, we’re not spending outside our means. We’re not passing on an impossible debt to our children. We’re not governing irresponsibly. We’re working on behalf of 1,000 families who will wake up tomorrow with a better future.”

Read the entire press release here.

** Steven Palazzo issued a presser expressing similar sentiment.

The DCCC, who is playing defense in races across the country, will keep a close eye on polling and candidate fundraising to determine who will continue to receive funding from the committee. The message: there is a short leash from the DCCC right now. We’ll look to see if they keep pouring money into MS-01. It’s a relatively inexpensive market, but they are trying their best to stretch their resources and minimize loses. That will be as telling of a sign as any about the direction of the race.

Van Hollen also noted that Democratic leaders have given vulnerable members permission to not only distance themselves from Nancy Pelosi- but to outright criticize her. We have highlighted those members who have taken that step, Travis Childers has not been among that group yet.

One of those Democrats, who they actually left of their blog post, is Travis Childers in the First. His second ad attacked Alan Nunnelee and he has sent out multiple pressers going after his opponent. I once opined that Childers may not do anything too overly negative- at least too early- to stay above the fray while letting the DCCC, Mississippi Democratic Party, and outside groups do his dirty work. I was wrong.

My general take is when you go negative this early- you are in trouble. In every contested race there is going to be some negative content, but before Labor Day even? That is not the sign of a confident, winning campaign.

An 80 seat pickup? Y’all Politics has a clip of FoxNews commentator Dick Morris where he recently predicted Republicans would see historical level gains this fall. And when I saw historical- we are talking 75-80 seat range. This was the first I have heard of anything this optimistic and aggressive, even though- as we have noted, the emerging trend around DC is that Republicans will indeed re-capture the House. Most sources, at this present time, put their gains around 30-40. A 39 seat pickup is needed to be the majority party.

Yesterday in my appearance with Sen. Chris McDaniel (who was filling in for Sid Salter) on SuperTalk I noted that there was some fear that the Republicans peaked too early back in February when Scott Brown won a special election in Massachusetts. That fear is no longer the case for Republicans, and it seems like momentum increases every day (generally thanks to the latest unpopular position taken by the president).

Morris also mentions the races in the First and Fourth starting around the 3:45 mark, giving Alan Nunnelee and Steven Palazzo excellent chances to defeat their Democratic opponents.

Heritage targets Childers for refusing to sign repeal pledge. The Heritage Foundation has radio and tv ads up in the First District asking Rep. Travis Childers why he has not signed on to a petition supporting repeal of the new healthcare reform legislation- that he opposed last spring. (I assume something similar is running in other Democratic districts throughout the country as most Dems have balked at repeal).

Here is a link to a page where you can sign the petition, and watch the ad that is running.

Marcy to head to DC. Bill Marcy, the Republican candidate in the Second District, will be participating in Glenn Beck’s ‘Restoring Honor’ rally in Washington this weekend. The event, which will be held on the anniversary of Martin Luther King’s freedom march, is expected to draw around 100,000 people and will also feature guests such as Sarah Palin.

** Marcy has also sent out a presser calling out Bennie Thompson for refusing to set any debate dates this fall.

Thompson to be featured speaker for Dems. Speaking of Bennie Thompson, he will be the featured speaker for the Second Congressional District Executive Committee meeting tomorrow which will take place at the BB King Blues Museum in Indianola. Topics on the menu include 2010 and 2011 elections, as well as redistricting.

How long Childers can or will say this remains to be seen. You may remember they use to say pretty regularly that Nunnelee supported social security privatization. That, of course, was a downright lie as Nunnelee most recently told the Jackson Free Press he does not.

In between the campaign pressers, yesterday Childers sent out an email about education in his official capacity as a Congressman (i.e., you and me paid for it). Of course he can’t attack Nunnelee in these emails, but he is certainly free to proclaim how proud he was “to vote for legislation that will create and save an estimated 2,000 education jobs in Mississippi.” (On behalf of taxpayers, we can hope those claims work out a little better than the first stimulus bill Childers supported).

You can read the entire presser here.

He was even able to get a couple supporters of his to have their pictures taken, names released, and there story about how the $26 billion just saved their life. One is proud to be a member of the Mississippi Association of Educators.

It ends with a “constituent letter.” This constituent is concerned about school funding, giving Childers another softball to “express concern regarding education funding for the state of Mississippi.” Once again, he got a plug in for the $26 billion and concluded by letting you know we “can count on him to continue to support Mississippi’s schools and educators.”

Ladies and gentlemen, just remember you paid for this. There is certainly nothing wrong with sending out emails on behalf of your office, but it is awfully fishy when they essentially mirror your campaign pieces.